船舶航行安全分析研究

Analysis and research on ship navigation safety

为了船舶航行安全,探讨船舶航行安全主要影响因素,针对性采取措施是船舶航行安全的关键。本研究采用协同学(Synergetics)理论方法,构建船舶海上航行安全模型;运用船舶航行安全运动力学对船舶海上航行安全主要影响因素,导致船舶处于危险局面的因素C和处于安全情形的因素E之间相互转换的规律做出了进一步的探讨,并通过动态动力方程,推导出C和E之间的转换概率流方程,分析出了对某类型船舶处于不同航行动态对应某一船时的定态求解结果,对海上交通安全监管机关、船公司和船舶加强管理,保障船舶海上航行安全,提供理论支持。

For the sake of ship navigation safety,this paper discusses the main influencing factors of ship navigation safety,and taking targeted measures is the key to ship navigation safety.In this study,the Synergetics theory is used to construct the safety model of ship navigation at sea.By using the main influence factors of ship navigation safety kinematics on ship navigation safety,this paper makes a further discussion on the law of the transformation between the factor C which leads to the dangerous situation and the factor E which is in the safe situation.Through the dynamic dynamic equation,the conversion probability flow equation between C and E is derived,and the steady state solution result of a certain type of ship corresponding to different navigation dynamics is analyzed.To strengthen the management of maritime traffic safety regulatory authorities,shipping companies and ships to ensure the safety of maritime navigation and provide theoretical support.