中国入境旅游经济韧性、效率提升与恢复性增长

Resilience,efficiency improvement and growth recovery of China's inbound tourism economy

韧性与效率是影响入境旅游经济恢复性增长与高质量发展的重要因素。运用熵值法与DEA-Tobit模型测度2010-2019年中国入境旅游经济韧性水平,并进行时空格局与障碍度分析,探讨其对入境旅游经济效率的影响,分析入境旅游恢复性增长路径机制。结果显示:中国入境旅游经济韧性整体向好,高韧性区域由东部沿海地区逐渐向中西部地区扩散,但全国入境旅游经济韧性均值仅0.2467,提升空间较大;入境旅游经济韧性的正向空间自相关性渐弱,H-H区辐射作用与L-L区扩散作用缩小,H-L区极化作用与L-H区空心作用增强;入境旅游人数、入境旅游收入、经济发展水平、产业结构水平、市场发育度和对外开放度是影响入境旅游经济韧性的主要障碍因子;入境旅游经济韧性每提升1%,旅游经济效率提升0.2432%,二者对入境旅游恢复性增长具有促进作用。

The resilience and efficiency of the inbound tourism economy are two significant factors affecting the economic growth recovery and high-quality development of inbound tourism.The entropy method and the DEA-Tobit model were used to measure the resilience level of China's inbound tourism economy from 2010 to 2019,the temporal and spatial pattern and obstacle factors were analyzed to explore the impact of resilience on the economic efficiency of inbound tourism.In the end,the growth recovery mechanism of inbound tourism was constructed.The results show that:the overall resilience of China's inbound tourism economy is improving,and areas of high resilience gradually spread from the eastern coast to the central and western regions.However,the national average is only 0.2467,which has a large room for improvement.The positive spatial autocorrelation of inbound tourism economic resilience weakens gradually.The radiation effect of high-high areas and the diffusion effect of low-low areas decrease,while the polarization effect of high-low areas and the hollow effect of low-high areas increase.The main obstacle factors affecting the economic resilience of inbound tourism include the number of inbound tourists,inbound tourism income,economic development level,industrial structure level,market development and openness.When the economic resilience of inbound tourism increases by 1%,its efficiency increases by 0.2432%.The economic resilience and efficiency of inbound tourism play a role in promoting the growth recovery of inbound tourism.