基于GM(1,1)模型的宁夏回族自治区空气污染物浓度的预测及分析

Prediction and Analysis of Air Pollution and Pollutant Concentration in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Based on GM(1,1) Model

本文对2015~2021年度宁夏回族自治区大气环境中的主要污染物进行了分析,根据宁夏回族自治区2015~2021年度大气环境质量状况,利用灰色体系分析方法,构建了大气环境质量评价指标的灰色预报模式。结果显示SO_(2)、NO_(2)、PM_(10)、CO、O_(3)、PM_(2.5)六项指标都处于平稳减缓的趋势,其未来几年的预测值均在合理范围内,具体由表4可知。对该模式进行的余值和相关程度的验证表明所建立的模式是合理的,其预报结论对改善宁夏回族自治区大气环境质量并进行科学管理具有一定的指导意义。

Analyze and predict the pollution status of major air pollutants in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region from 2015 to 2021.Methods The grey prediction model was established and predicted based on the monitoring data of the major air pollutants from 2015 to 2021. Bear fruit: SO_(2)、NO_(2)、PM_(10)、CO、O_(3)、PM_(2.5)six indicators both are in a steady trend of slow decline, and the forecast values in the coming years are within a reasonable range, as shown in table 4. Conclusion by checking the residual difference and correlation degree of the model, the prediction results can provide auxiliary decision basis for air pollution control and scientifi c management in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.