全球供应链重构背景下日印经济合作的前景分析

Prospect Analysis of Japan-India Economic Cooperation under the Background of Global Supply Chain Reconstruction

疫情冲击、大国博弈、地缘冲突及技术革命等多重因素影响下,全球供应链体系进入重构期。疫情背景下,日印经济合作提质升级,日本将印度视为经济合作潜力国与海外供应链布局的支点国,印度将日本视为产业转移与供应链布局合作伙伴。同时,日印经济合作也存在着多重内外受制因素。总体来看,日本对印贸易投资存在很大增量空间,对印供应链投资布局提速,加快制造业对印转移进程,日印数字、绿色等产业合作值得关注。对中国而言,面对全球供应链重构背景下日印经济合作加深趋向,在华供应链可能面临“双重挤压困境”,应从促进国内产业结构升级、巩固日印对华经贸联系、深度融入全球供应链体系等举措入手。

Affected by multiple factors such as the impact of the epidemic, the game of great powers, geopolitical conflicts and technological revolutions, the global supply chain system has entered a period of reconstruction. Under the background of the epidemic, Japan-India economic cooperation has been improved and upgraded. Japan regards India as a potential country for economic cooperation and fulcrum country for overseas supply chain layout, and India regards Japan as a partner for industrial transfer and supply chain layout. At the same time, Japan-India economic cooperation also has multiple internal and external constraints. Overall, there is a lot of room for incremental growth in Japan’s trade and investment in India. The layout of the supply chain investment in India is accelerated, and the transfer of manufacturing to India is accelerated. Japan-India digital, green and other industrial cooperation deserves attention. For China, in the face of the deepening trend of Japan-India economic cooperation under the background of global supply chain reconstruction, the supply chain in China may face a "double squeeze dilemma".It should start with measures such as promoting the upgrading of the domestic industrial structure, consolidating the economic and trade ties between Japan and India with China, and deeply integrating into the global supply chain system.