人民币国际化能力提升的驱动因素研究——基于国际贸易与金融交易的实证分析

The Driving Factors of RMB Internationalization Capability Enhancement——Empirical Analysis Based on International Trade and Financial Transactions

人民币国际化是事关中国国民经济和社会发展的重大战略,研究人民币国际化能力提升的驱动因素具有重要意义。本文基于VAR模型,对中国国际商品和服务贸易和金融交易的相关数据进行实证分析。结果表明:人民币国际化能力主要受中国进出口占世界进出口总额的比重的影响,人民币境外信贷规模占世界信贷总额比重和人民币国际债券和票据发行总额占国际货币市场商业票据和其他工具发现总额比重对其提升作用较小。

RMB Internationalization is a vital strategy for China’s national economic and social development,and it’s significant to analyze the driving factors to improve RMB’s Internationalization capability. Based on the VAR model, this paper empirically examines relevant data on China’s international trade in goods,services, and financial transactions. The results show that the RMB’s ability to internationalize is mainly influenced by the share of China’s imports and exports in the world’s total imports and exports. The proportion of RMB overseas credit size and total issuance of RMB international bonds and notes as a share of commercial paper and other instruments in the global currency market contribute less to its enhancement.