安徽省茶叶霜冻害气象指数保险费率厘定研究——以黄山、六安为例

Study on Determining the Premium Rate of Meteorological Index of Tea Frost Damage in Anhui Province——A Case Study of Huangshan City and Liu’an City

气象指数保险是当前最有效的转移气象灾害风险的金融工具,厘定合理的保险费率是设计气象指数保险产品的核心工作。研究根据安徽省黄山市和六安市历年气象数据、茶区产量数据及年单产量数据,利用差分预测、logit回归模型及正交多项式等方法计算各县市纯保险费率和基准保险费率。结果表明:六安市辖区及其下辖的舒城县、金寨县、霍山县茶叶霜冻害纯保险费率分别为5.90%、0.78%、8.11%、1.66%,均值为4.11%,最高的是金寨县,最低是舒城县;黄山市辖区及其下辖的歙县、休宁县、黟县、祁门县茶叶霜冻害纯保险费率分别为4.36%、0.66%、5.21%、2.01%、7.60%,均值为3.97%,最高是祁门县,最低是歙县,六安市保险纯费率均值略高于黄山市。基于此,提出设计差别保额保险产品、实施费率优惠政策等建议。

Meteorological index insurance is the most effective financial tool to transfer meteorological disaster risk at present,and determining reasonable premium rate is the core work of designing meteorological index insurance products.Based on the meteorological data of Huangshan city and Liu’an city,Anhui province,the pure premium rate and benchmark premium rate of each county and city were calculated by using the methods of difference prediction,logit regression model and orthogonal polynomial.The results showed that the pure insurance rates for frost damage of tea in Liu’an City and its subordinate Shucheng county,Jinzhai county,and Huoshan county were 5.90%,0.78%,8.11%,and 1.66%,respectively,with an average value of 4.11%.The pure insurance rate of frost damage to tea in Huangshan city and its subordinate Shexian,Xiuning,Yixian and Qimen county was 4.36%,0.66%,5.21%,2.01%,and 7.60%,respectively,with an average of 3.97%.Based on this,some suggestions were put forward,such as designing different insurance products and implementing preferential rate policies.