共同富裕背景下减税对东北地区政策效应分析

Analysis of the Policy Effect of Tax Reduction on Northeast China under the Background of Common Prosperity

党的二十大报告提出“中国式现代化是全体人民共同富裕的现代化”。近年来,国家出台了一系列减税降费政策,为了评价政策的运行效果,本文从宏观层面,通过对税收、GDP、固定资产投资、就业数据建立VAR模型,得出税负变化,到第四季度才会降低GDP增长率,3个月内使得固定资产投资增加,随后降低固定资产投资,一定时期后几乎不再产生影响。微观层面,以东北三省上市公司为例,得出税负降低在三个月内提高营业收入增长率,在半年内使净资产收益率降低,一年内对应收账款周转率没有明显影响。借此本文有针对性地提出了调整东北地区税收分成比例,给予行业财税优惠政策,优化营商环境的建议,为实现共同富裕,振兴东北经济建言献策。

The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed,"Chinese modernization is the modernization of common prosperity for all people."Recently,the state has introduced a series of policies to cut taxes and fees.In order to evaluate the operational effectiveness of the policy,this paper establishes a VAR model based on the data on tax,GDP,fixed asset investment,and employment.It concludes that the change in tax burden only reduces the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter,increases the fixed asset investment within three months,then reduces it,and after a certain period,it almost stops having an impact.At the micro level,taking listed companies in the three northeastern provinces as an example,it is concluded that reducing the tax burden increases the operating income growth rate within three months,reduces the return on net assets within half a year,and has no significant impact on the accounts receivable turnover rate within one year.In this way,this paper proposes to adjust the tax-sharing ratio in the Northeast,give preferential tax policies to the industry,optimize the business environment,and offer suggestions to achieve common prosperity and revitalize the Northeast economy.