基于DPSIR模型的陕西省水安全评价及障碍因子诊断

Evaluation of Water Security and Obstacle Factor Diagnosis of Shaanxi Province Based on DPSIR Model

水资源安全评价是水资源保护和规划的基础,为了提高区域水安全,迫切需要定量评估水安全情况并对其障碍因子进行诊断。该文基于DPSIR模型建立了水安全评价指标体系,结合单指标量化-多指标综合-多准则综合(SMI-P)的量化方法和耦合协调度模型,对陕西省水安全健康状态做出评估,并运用障碍度模型分析了影响水安全的主要因子。结果表明:2000—2018年陕西省水安全状态经历了从“较不安全”状态向“基本安全”状态发展,但驱动力和影响子系统的安全度有所下降,应加强对水资源有限性以及城市社会发展的重视。水安全子系统耦合协调度逐年提高,实现由中级协调到良好协调的转变,2018年系统耦合度高达0.815,系统间相互依赖相互作用程度较高。人均GDP、恩格尔系数、人均日生活用水量以及人均水资源量是制约陕西省水安全状态提升的主要障碍因子,可以更好地为制定和采取相关措施来提高水安全状态提供科学依据。综上,陕西省水安全状态整体趋势向好,经济与水资源情况为主要制约因素。

Water resources security assessment is the basis of water resources protection and planning.In order to improve regional water security,it is urgent to evaluate water security quantitatively and diagnose its obstacle factors.In this study,a water security evaluation index system was established based on DPSIR model.Combining with the quantization method of single index quantization,multiple index synthesis,multiple criteria synthesis(SMI-P)and coupled coordination degree model,we evaluated the water security and health status of Shaanxi Province,and analyzed the main factors affecting water security by using obstacle degree model.The results show that from 2000 to 2018,the state of water security in Shaanxi Province had experienced the development from‘less safe’to‘basic safe’,but the security degree of driving force and influence subsystem had decreased,so more attention should be paid to the limitation of water resources and urban social development;the coupling coordination degree of water security subsystem increased year by year,realizing the transformation from moderate imbalance to good coordination;in 2015,the coupling degree of the system was as high as 0.804,and the degree of mutual dependence and interaction between the systems was high;however,due to the reduction of the safety value of driving force,the coupling coordination state of the system changed to mild imbalance in 2018;GDP per capita,Engel′s coefficient,daily water consumption per capita and the proportion of water quality monitoring sections reaching the standard were the main obstacles to the improvement of water security in Shaanxi Province,which could provide a scientific basis for formulating and taking relevant measures to improve water security.The overall trend of water security in Shaanxi Province is good,and economy and water resources are the main restricting factors.