1980-2015年江西省土地利用迁移变化分析及驱动机制研究

Spatial and Temporal Variability Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms of Land Use in Jiangxi Province from 1980 to 2015

厘清江西省土地利用转换时空特征,明晰驱动因子,可为该区土地资源的合理开发和生态环境保护提供科学依据。基于Landsat遥感影像,利用ArcGIS空间分析和SPSS主成分分析等方法,通过土地利用单一和综合动态度、土地利用转移矩阵和土地利用程度综合指数,以及土地利用重心迁移等,研究了1980—2015年江西省土地利用时空变化,并探究了驱动机制。结果表明:(1)1980—2015年江西省土地利用综合动态度为0.168%/a,类型主要为林地和耕地,两者面积占总面积的89.85%,其中建设用地面积变化最大,期间共增加了2241.01 km^(2),为主要变化类型。(2)1980—2015年江西省土地利用转出和转入面积最大的分别是耕地3190.67 km^(2)和建设用地2325.20 km^(2),而林地和草地也分别转出2830.77 km^(2),885.18 km^(2),迁移变化总体上为居民建设用地大量扩张,耕地和林地面积均大为减少。(3)江西省土地利用重心随土地利用变化发生相应改变,其中建设用地和耕地重心变化较大,建设用地向东北方向迁移,耕地向西南方向迁移,二者变化轨迹相反。(4)江西省建设用地的驱动力为城镇发展水平和人口数量与结构两个方面,耕地的驱动力为农业水平和产业机构以及自然条件。综上,近35 a江西省土地利用变化较大,其中耕地和建设用为主要变化类型,其变化主要受社会因素影响。

Clarifying the spatial-temporal characteristics and driving factors of land use conversion in Jiangxi Province can provide a scientific basis for the rational development of land resources and ecological environmental protection in the region.Based on Landsat remote sensing images,the spatial analysis of ArcGIS and principal component analysis of SPSS were used to analyze the land use change in Jiangxi Province from 1980 to 2015 and to explore the driving mechanism through the single and comprehensive dynamic attitude of land use,land use transfer matrix and comprehensive index of land use degree,as well as the migration of land use center of gravity.The results show that:(1)from 1980 to 2015,the comprehensive dynamics of land use in Jiangxi Province was 0.168%/a,and the types were mainly forestland and cultivated land,which accounted for 89.85%of the total area;the construction land area changed the most,with a total increase of 2241.01 km^(2)during the period,which was the main type of change.(2)from 1980 to 2015,the largest areas of land use transfer out and transfer in Jiangxi Province were 3190.67 km^(2)of cultivated land and 2325.20 km^(2)of construction land,respectively,while forestland and grassland were also transferred out of 2830.77 km^(2)and 885.18 km^(2),respectively;(3)the center of gravity of land use in Jiangxi Province changed accordingly with the change of land use;the centers of gravity of construction land and cultivated land changed greatly;the construction land moved to the northeast and the cultivated land moved to the southwest;the change trajectories of the two were opposite;(4)the driving force of construction land in Jiangxi Province was the development level of towns and the number and structure of population;the driving force of cultivated land was the level of agriculture and industrial institutions,population changes and living standards of residents.In summary,land use in Jiangxi Province had changed a lot in the recent 35 years,with cultivated land and construction land as the main change types,which were mainly influenced by social factors.