安徽省生态系统服务时空变化及权衡-协同关系

Spatiotemporal Change and Trade-off/Synergy Relationships Among Multiple Ecosystem Services in Anhui Province

探析生态系统服务的变化特征及其权衡与协同关系,为制定生态环境保护政策和区域发展规划提供决策参考。利用1990—2018年4期土地利用数据,运用当量因子法、GIS空间分析与地理探测器模型,基于格网尺度刻画安徽省生态系统服务价值(Ecosystem Service Values, ESV)时空演变特征和权衡/协同关系,探讨了影响ESV空间分异的主要因素及其交互作用。结果表明:(1)在1990—2018年期间安徽省ESV呈不断减少趋势,从研究初期的3 647.37亿元(1990年)减少至3 567.78亿元(2018年),下降了79.59亿元。(2)空间尺度上,ESV空间分布格局变化较小,空间异质性明显,呈现明显的南高北低的空间分异特征。(3)数值关系上,4种典型生态系统服务之间呈现不同强度的协同关系。空间分布上,生态系统服务的空间权衡/协同表现出显著的分异特征,一对生态系统服务的权衡与协同关系因空间尺度不同而存在一定差异。(4)县域尺度ESV空间分异格局是多种因素综合作用的结果,其中人口密度和人为影响综合指数对区域ESV空间差异的决定力显著强于其他因素。两两驱动因子交互作用对ESV的影响力均大于各因子独立作用的解释力。由此可得,安徽省ESV权衡/协同关系具有区域异质性,未来应在空间尺度上促进多种服务间的协调发展。

The spatio-temporal changes of ecosystem services, trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services were explored to provide decision-making reference for formulating ecological protection policy and regional sustainable development in the future. Based on the land use classification data of the Anhui Province from 1990 to 2018, the equivalent factor method, GIS spatial analysis and GeoDetetor were used to depict the spatial geographical pattern of ecosystem services values(ESV), then the trade-offs and synergies was explored, spatial heterogeneity of the county ESV was quantitatively detected, and the interaction mechanism between the ESV and the geographical environment was revealed. The results showed that:(1) the ESV in Anhui was decreasing from 3 647.37 billion yuan in 1990 to 3 567.78 billion yuan in 2018;(2) in terms of spatial distribution, the spatial distribution pattern of ESV in Anhui Province changed little and the spatial heterogeneity was obvious from 1990 to 2018;(3) there was significant heterogeneity of trade-offs/synergies between ecosystem services on the spatial pattern;the tradeoffs and synergies of ecosystem services varied with different spatial scales;(4) the spatial differentiation of ESV was affected by a variety of factors;the difference in density of population and HAI had always been the most decisive factor for the spatial differences;in the interaction detection, each factor had significant differences in the spatial distribution of ESV, and showed a two-factor enhancement. Therefore, the tradeoffs and synergies of ecosystem services had spatial heterogeneity, and synergistic development of multiple ecosystem services should be spatially promoted at spatial scale in the future.