长期TFP增速变化对双支柱调控框架的影响研究——兼论双稳定目标的实现策略

The Impact of the Change in the Long-term Growth Rate of TFP on the Two-Pillar Regulatory Framework——The Realization of the Goal of Dual Stability

2008年国际金融危机之后,国内外学术界和政策界普遍认为,宏观政策不应只关注经济稳定目标,还要关注金融稳定目标,而且只靠货币政策难以实现双稳定目标,使用双支柱调控框架才能更好地实现双稳定目标。近年来,中国在全球范围内较早地构建了双支柱框架,为全世界提供了有益的经验借鉴,并取得了一定成效,但是仍然没能很好地实现双稳定目标。本文认为,这很可能与中国所处的宏观经济环境尤其是TFP长期增速下滑有关。本文通过构建含有双支柱和双稳定目标的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,深入剖析了长期TFP增速变化对双支柱框架的影响。研究结果表明,当经济处于“高TFP增速均衡”状态时,货币政策与宏观审慎政策之间存在“协同效应”,双支柱框架有助于实现双稳定目标,这是已有文献普遍关注的情形。而当经济处于“低TFP增速均衡”状态时,货币政策与宏观审慎政策之间将产生“对抗效应”,从而削弱双支柱框架对双稳定目标的实现效果,这与当前中国所面临的情形较为相似。基于本文的结论,中国需要将双支柱框架与提升长期TFP增速的政策配合使用,才能更好地实现双稳定目标。

Since the global financial crisis in 2008,academic and policy circles have reached a consensus that macroeconomic policy should focus on the goal of economic stability and financial stability.Monetary policy improves economic stability,whereas macroprudential policy is employed to achieve financial stability.The coordination of monetary and macroprudential policy is often called the two-pillar framework for macroeconomic management.According to many recent studies,it has been widely accepted in academic and policy circles that the two-pillar framework can somewhat achieve the goal of dual stability.The two-pillar framework has been established in China since 2016.Although the operational performance of the two-pillar framework has been continuously improved in China,the goal of dual stability is still hardly achieved in recent years.For one thing,the downturn pressure of economic growth has been long-lasting in the recent decade,as indicated by negative output gaps sequentially over the last few years.For another,the bubblization of asset prices and the climbing of the macro leverage ratio jointly imply substantial exposure to financial instability.Therefore,much can be done to improve economic and financial stability.There is no doubt that the two-pillar framework in China is still in its early stage.In terms of institutional and operational issues,the performance of the two-pillar framework can be further improved.Besides that,there is still one plausible factor—the slowdown of the long-term growth rate of total factor productivity(TFP)—as a roadblock in mitigating the performance of the two-pillar framework.Existing theories do not emphasize the role of the long-term growth rate of TFP on the performance of the twopillar framework and the realization of the goal of dual stability.Thus,the policy implications from existing literature after the Great Recession are unlikely to apply in China over the last few years.We build up a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model embedded with recessive bubbles and thoroughly analyze the influence of the slowdown of the long-term growth rate of TFP on the two-pillar framework.Our results show that the two pillars’effectiveness depends on a country’s economic environment,and the recessive bubble environment will lead to the failure of the two-pillar framework.On the one hand,we confirm that there is a synergy effect between monetary policy and macroprudential policy in the bubble-less environment such that the two-pillar framework can achieve dual stability,as pointed out by existing literature.On the other hand,in contrast to existing literature,we find an injury effect between monetary policy and macroprudential policy in the presence of a recessive bubble.This effect makes the two-pillar framework fail to achieve the goal of dual stability in recent years.In recent years,China’s TFP growth rate has dropped sharply,leading to a recessive bubble environment,which makes the two-pillar framework challenging to achieve the goal of dual stability.In response to the recessive bubble environment,the two-pillar framework should be coordinated with a growth policy that can promote TFP growth to mitigate the injury effect and thus regain economic stability and financial stability.Our paper has two aspects of contributions.First,existing literature studying the performance of the two-pillar framework needs to pay attention to the role of long-term changes in the economic environment,for example,the slowdown of the long-term growth rate of TFP.We make a novel argument that the slowdown of the long-term growth rate of TFP can significantly affect the performance of the twopillar framework,which advances our understanding of the two-pillar framework.Second,this paper provides novel policy implications for implementing the two-pillar framework in China.Because when an economy suffers from recessive bubbles in the low-TFP-growth environment,the two-pillar framework fails in achieving the goal of dual stability.Therefore,we suggest that to achieve economic and financial stability,the long-term growth policy in promoting TFP growth is necessary for coordination with the existing two-pillar framework.