机遇还是挑战:宏观冲击对微观创新的影响——基于企业异质性视角的分析

Opportunity or Challenge:The Effect of Macroeconomic Shocks on Innovation——An Analysis from the Perspective of Firm Heterogeneity

当前国际环境动荡,外部冲击不断,中国在创新驱动经济高质量发展上面临较多挑战和较大不确定性。本文构建了一个引入创新能力异质性的企业决策模型,并内生化企业研发投入和生产率。在此基础上,从供给侧和需求侧两个方面、长期和短期两个视角,考察了宏观冲击对企业研发及生产率的影响。研究发现,当供应链上游成本上升时,短期看,高创新能力的企业会增加研发投入和提高生产率,而低创新能力的企业会减少研发投入和降低生产率,且所有企业的利润均下降;长期看,成本冲击会导致低效率企业退出、高效率企业市场份额扩大,最终让高效率企业在增加企业研发及生产率的同时,实现利润增长,且整个行业的平均生产率会有所提升。这意味着,长期看,成本上升的压力可能会推动行业结构调整。当总需求下降时,短期看,所有企业的研发投入和生产率均受到负面影响;长期看,总需求下降不会对企业造成影响,也不会改变行业结构,但会使行业规模缩小。本文从微观视角为如何在复杂多变的宏观环境中推动企业创新和实现经济高质量发展提供了政策启示。

The turbulent international environment and continuous external shocks nowadays bring challenges and uncertainty to the high-quality development driven by innovation in China.This paper constructs a theoretical model endogenizing firms’innovation investment and productivity in the presence of heterogeneity in innovation capabilities.Then,it investigates the effects of macroeconomic shocks from both the demand and supply sides on firms’innovation investment and productivity in the short and long runs.This paper first investigates the effect of the supply shock——an increase in the upstream cost.In the short run,low-capability firms reduce innovation investment and productivity in response to the cost pressure and obtain lower profits;and high-capability firms increase innovation investment and productivity to partly offset the influence of the increased cost but still earn lower profits.In the long run,a new effect arises:low-capability firms exit from the market,which reduces competition.Consequently,high-capability firms can obtain higher market shares and may even earn higher profits.In addition,the average industry productivity increases.This implies that the cost pressure can improve the industry structure.Then,this paper examines the effect of the demand shock——a decrease in aggregate demand.Due to the market size decrease,all firms reduce innovation investment and productivity in the short run,and earn lower profits.In the long run,fewer firms enter the market due to expected lower profits,which reduces the industry size.In equilibrium,the industry size equals the market size,and all entering firms behave as if there is no demand shock.That is to say,the demand shock in the long run does not affect the industry structure but only changes the industry size.The results of this paper have policy implications.First,the heterogeneous effects of supply shocks should be taken into consideration when formulating industry policies.On the one hand,it is necessary to encourage high-capability firms to increase innovation investment in“bottlenecks.”On the other hand,it needs to be recognized that some low-capability firms are not able to cope with supply shocks and they need to upgrade,switch to other production,or exit in order.It is also notable that though the selection effect of supply shocks increases the average industry productivity,it increases inequality within the industry as well,which increases the market power of high-capability firms and may lead to monopoly.Second,it is necessary to promote residents’consumption and boost domestic demand during economic downturns.Firms have incentives to make innovation investment and increase productivity only when demand is stable.Hence,consumption-stimulating policies,such as allowances and social security policies,not only improve residents’welfare directly,but also reduce demand volatility,encourage firms to invest more in innovation,and promote economic growth.