地区房价、对外贸易与经济增长——基于70个大中城市数据的PVAR模型检验

Regional Housing Prices,Foreign Trade and Economic Growth--PVAR Model Test Based on Data of 70 Large and Medium-sized Cities

选取中国70个大中城市2006-2020年的面板数据,运用面板向量自回归模型对地区房价、对外贸易以及经济增长三者之间的互动关系进行数据分析和模型检验,分析发现其三者的进一步发展更多的是依赖自身发展的惯性;对外贸易和经济增长对于地区房价均会产生促进作用,但前者的促进影响要弱于后者,说明地区房价比较容易受到当地经济发展水平的影响;地区房价及经济增长对对外贸易均存在一定的促进作用,但促进效果微弱;地区房价波动对经济增长的影响要略大于对外贸易对经济增长的影响。基于此提出了应该保持地区房价合理波动,推动地区经济发展平稳进行;坚持对外开放战略,加快促进“双循环”建设的建议。

This study selected panel data of 70 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2006 to 2020,and used the panel vector autoregression model to analyze the data and model test the interactive relationship among regional housing price,foreign trade and economic growth.The results show that the further development of the three factors is more dependent on their own devel-opment inertia.Both foreign trade and economic growth have promoting effects on regional housing prices,but the latter is stronger than the former,indicating that regional housing prices are more susceptible to the influence of local economic development level.Regional housing price and economic growth have a certain promotion effect on foreign trade,but the promotion degree is weak;the influence of regional housing price fluctuation on economic growth is slightly greater than that of foreign trade.Based on this,it is proposed that we should keep the reasonable fluctuation of regional housing prices to promote the steady development of regional economy;adhere to the strategy of opening up to the outside world and accelerate the construction of the"double cycle"proposal.