2005—2020年陕西省儿童健康和保健服务状况分析及预测

Analysis and prediction of children’s health and health care services in Shaanxi province from 2005 to 2020

目的分析陕西省儿童健康和保健服务状况主要指标的变化趋势,并对未来三年5岁以下儿童死亡率(U5MR)、新生儿死亡率(NMR)及婴儿死亡率(IMR)进行预测分析,为制定儿童保健服务干预措施提供依据。方法收集2005—2020年陕西省5岁以下儿童死亡和儿童保健相关数据,分析儿童死亡率和儿童保健指标变化趋势,了解陕西省儿童健康状况和保健服务情况,并建立GM(1,1)模型进行未来三年的儿童死亡率预测。结果2005—2020年U5MR、NMR、IMR、新生儿访视率、3岁以下儿童系统管理率及7岁以下儿童系统管理率呈下降趋势(P<0.001)。经GM(1,1)预测模型预测2021—2023年儿童死亡率,U5MR分别为3.15‰、2.74‰、2.37‰;NMR分别为1.38‰、1.15‰、0.96‰;IMR分别为2.14‰、1.82‰、1.54‰。结论U5MR、NMR和IMR呈下降趋势,儿童保健服务指标呈上升趋势,但仍要进一步提高儿童保健服务质量。

Objective To analyze the trend of the main indicators of child health and health care services in Shaanxi province,and predict the under 5 mortality rate(U5MR),neonatal mortality rate(NMR)and infant mortality rate(IMR)in the next three years,for providing the basis for the development of child health service intervention measures.Methods The mortality data of children under 5 years old and the data related to child health care in Shaanxi province from 2005 to 2020were collected to analyze the trends of child mortality and child health indicators to describe the health status and health services of children in Shaanxi province.The GM(1,1)model was established to predict the child mortality in the next three years.Results From 2005 to 2020,U5MR,NMR,IMR,neonatal visit rate,system management rate of children under 3 years old and system management rate of children under 7 years old showed a downward trend.According to GM(1,1)prediction model,the mortality of children in 2021 to 2023 are described below(U5MR:3.15‰,2.74‰,2.37‰.NMR:1.38‰,1.15‰,0.96‰.IMR:2.14‰,1.82‰,1.54‰).Conclusion U5MR,NMR and IMR showed a decreasing trend,and the indexes of child health care service showed an increasing trend,but the quality of child health care service should be further improved.