基于前景理论的稻农施肥行为研究

Study on Fertilization Behavior of Rice Farmers Based on Prospect Theory

基于鄱阳湖流域10个县(区)的571份样本数据,在前景理论框架下采用彩票选择实验测度鄱阳湖流域稻农的风险厌恶、小概率偏好、损失厌恶等效用参数,并构建施肥行为响应模型实证分析稻农的效用参数对其过度施肥行为的影响。结果表明:期望收益越高的稻农化肥用量越大,风险厌恶程度越高的稻农过度施肥量越大,损失厌恶程度越高的稻农过度施肥量越小。在不同预期状态下农户过度施肥的影响因素存在差异。平均而言,稻农期望收益每增加1个单位,过度施肥量增加0.779个单位;风险厌恶每增加1个单位,过度施肥量增加1.538个单位;损失厌恶每增加1个单位,过度施肥量减少0.241个单位;小概率偏好每增加1个单位,过度施肥量减少2.293个单位。据此,建议在充分把握农户施肥心理和认知特征的基础上,通过缓解农户经营风险焦虑,改变农户化肥依赖习惯并培养农户化肥减量意识以扭转农户过度施肥行为。

Based on 571 sample data from 10 counties(districts)in Poyang Lake Basin,the utility parameters such as risk aversion,low probability preference and loss aversion of local rice farmers were measured by lottery choice experiment under the framework of prospect theory,and the effects of utility parameters on their excessive fertilization behavior were analyzed by constructing a fertilization behavior response model.The results show that the higher farmers’ income expectation,the greater the amount of chemical fertilizer applied.The higher their risk aversion,the greater the amount of excessive fertilization and the higher their loss aversion,the smaller the amount of excessive fertilization.Moreover,the factors affecting excessive fertilization of farmers are different in different expected states.On average,a one unit increase in the expected yield and risk aversion of rice farmers increase the amount of excessive fertilization by 0.779 and 1.538 respectively.Furthermore,a one unit increase in their loss aversion and low probability preference decrease the amount of excessive fertilization by 0.241 and 2.293 respectively.On the basis of fully grasping farmers’ psychological and cognitive characteristicsin applying fertilizer,it is suggested that change the behavior of farmers fertilizer application behavior should be changed by relieving their management risk anxiety,and their habit of relying on fertilizer should be changed and their awareness of fertilizer reduction be cultivated.