汇率变动如何影响中国企业跨国并购?

How Does Exchange Rate Movement Affect Chinese Enterprises′ Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions?

基于2002~2015年中国海关统计数据库、中国工业企业数据库和BVD-Zephyr全球并购交易数据库的匹配数据,文章从企业层面实际有效汇率变动视角切入,探究汇率变动对企业跨国并购行为的影响及作用机制。结果表明:企业实际有效汇率上升将推动企业进行跨国并购,在变换估计方法、替换变量、改变样本容量以及考虑内生性问题后结论依然保持稳健;企业实际有效汇率变动对企业跨国并购行为存在异质性影响,东部地区企业、大型企业、国有企业、资本和技术密集型行业以及非敏感性行业企业的跨国并购行为更易受汇率影响;机制分析表明,汇率变动通过提升全要素生产率进而推动企业的跨国并购行为,全要素生产率的中介程度达30.17%,且企业面临的融资约束越小,中介效应越强。文章认为,加快汇率市场化改革、引导金融机构“脱虚向实”缓解中小企业的融资约束,将有助于企业提高自身全要素生产率,进而为中国企业跨国并购提供助力。

Based on the matching data of China Customs Database, China Industrial Enterprise Database and BVD-Zephyr Database from 2002 to 2015, this paper investigates the impact and mechanism of exchange rate movements on enterprises′ cross-border mergers and acquisitions(M&As) behavior. The results show that, firstly, the appreciation of firm-level real effective exchange rate will promote enterprises to undertake cross-border M&As, and the conclusion remains robust after changing estimation methods, substituting variables, changing sample size and considering endogeneity. Secondly, exchange rate movement has a heterogeneous impact on the cross-border M&As, and the cross-border M&As of enterprises in the eastern region, large enterprises, state-owned enterprises, capital-and technology-intensive and non-sensitive industries are more easily affected by exchange rates movement. Thirdly, mechanism analysis shows that exchange rate movements indirectly affect enterprises′ crossborder M&As behavior through total factor productivity(TFP), and the mediating degree of TFP reaches 30.17%. Moreover, the less financing constraints enterprises face, the stronger the mediating effects. Therefore, accelerating the reform of exchange rate marketization, stop financial institutions being distracted from their intended purpose and alleviating financial constraint faced by enterprises, will improve enterprises′ TFP and benefit it′s cross-border M&As.