经济政策不确定性、国民储蓄率及其异质性分析

An Analysis of Economic Policy Uncertainty,National Savings Rate and Its Heterogeneity

作为新兴经济体的代表,中国储蓄率位居世界前列。本文基于1998—2019年全球16个主要经济体的动态面板数据,采用Baker.S等学者测算的经济政策不确定性指数为核心解释变量,在控制少儿抚养比等变量的基础上,构建双向固定效应模型和系统GMM模型,深入分析经济政策不确定性对国民储蓄率的影响。实证研究发现,经济政策不确定性和国民储蓄率存在显著正向关系,并且在不同收入水平国家存在明显的异质性特征。当前,在世界经济深度调整背景下,如何对国内宏观经济政策进行合理化设计,烫平由于国际贸易争端与疫情冲击带来的经济波动,从需求侧引导国内居民理性配置储蓄与消费比例,拉动国内经济有序增长,成为各国急需解决的现实问题。

As a representative of emerging economies,China’s savings rate ranks among the highest in the world.Based on the dynamic panel data of 16 major economies in the world from 1998 to 2019,this paper uses the uncertainty index of economic policy calculated by Baker.S and other scholars as the core explanatory variable,and constructs a two-way fixed effect model and a systematic GMM model on the basis of controlling variables such as child dependency ratio,so as to analyze the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the national savings rate.Empirical studies have found that there is a significant positive relationship between economic policy uncertainty and national savings rate,and there are obvious heterogeneity characteristics in countries with different income levels.At present,under the background of the deep adjustment of the world economy,how to rationalize the design of domestic macroeconomic policies,smooth out the economic fluctuations caused by international trade disputes and the impact of the COVID-19,guide domestic residents to rationally allocate savings and consumption from the demand side,and promote the orderly growth of the domestic economy has become a realistic problem that countries urgently need to solve.