美欧对俄罗斯经济制裁的逻辑、影响及启示

The Logic, Influences and Implications of U.S. and EU Economic Sanctions against Russia

2022年俄乌冲突爆发以来,美欧通过强化资产冻结、融资限制、金融服务阻断和贸易管制措施,不断加码对俄罗斯的经济制裁。受西方阵营制裁措施的影响,俄罗斯经济增速大幅下滑,通货膨胀率高企;进出口受到非对称影响,汽车、航空及商业地产等行业遭受严重冲击;俄罗斯跨境资本大幅外流,储备资产遭大面积冻结;金融市场波动加剧,债务可持续性面临挑战。俄乌冲突下的美欧制裁使全球地缘政治版图更趋分化,全球供应链循环遭受侵蚀并局部“脱钩”,国际货币体系步入调整变革期,全球绿色转型进程面临重大波折。面对地缘政治格局演变下不断上升的制裁风险,我国应加强顶层设计,编织制裁免疫安全网;有序推进人民币国际化,提高支付体系的独立自主性;重新审视经济安全,提高产业链韧性。

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the U.S. and EU have continuously toughened their economic sanctions against Russia by strengthening asset freezing, financing restrictions, financial service blocking and trade control measures. Affected by the sanctions imposed by the Western camp, Russia’s economic growth rate has declined sharply, and the inflation rate has been high. Its imports and exports have been asymmetrically affected, and industries such as automobiles, aviation, and commercial real estate have been severely impacted. Russia’s cross-border capital outflows have been large, and its reserve assets have been greatly affected as well. Financial market volatility is heightened, and debt sustainability is challenged. The U.S. and EU sanctions have further polarized the global geopolitical landscape. The global supply chain has been eroded and partially “decoupled”. The international monetary system has entered a period of adjustment and transformation, and the global green transformation process is facing major setbacks. Encountering rising risks of sanctions under the evolving geopolitical situation, China should strengthen toplevel design and weave a “security net” for sanctions immunity, orderly promote the internationalization of the RMB and improve the independence of the payment system, re-examine its economic security and improve the resilience of the industrial chain.