新冠疫情背景下建筑从业人员统计生命价值研究

Research on VOSL of construction practitioners in context of COVID-19

为研究建筑职业风险和新冠疫情风险下的统计生命价值(VOSL),以成都市建筑从业者为对象采集数据,基于生存分析处理删失数据的特性,运用二分式条件价值法(CVM)和Kaplan-Meier法测算不同背景下的VOSL,运用COX回归对VOSL影响因素进行分析。研究结果表明:成都市建筑从业者在职业风险和新冠疫情风险下的VOSL分别为429.472,459.079万元,生命价值评估具有情境依赖性且存在“引导悖论”;2种风险背景下受访者学历、月收入及安全重视程度的提高均会增强支付意愿,而安全满意程度的提高则会降低支付意愿;职业风险下影响支付意愿的关键因素为安全设备保障满意程度、重视程度和学历,新冠疫情风险下影响支付意愿的关键因素为卫生安全重视程度、学历和月收入。

In order to study the value of a statistics life(VOSL)under the construction occupational risk and the COVID-19 risk,the data were collected from the construction practitioners in Chengdu,and based on the characteristics of survival analysis in processing the censored data,the VOSL under different backgrounds were calculated by the dichotomous contingent valuation method(CVM)and Kaplan-Meier method,then the influential factors of VOSL were analyzed with COX regression.The results showed that the VOSL of construction practitioners in Chengdu under the occupational risk and the COVID-19 risk was 4,294,720 yuan and 4,590,790 yuan respectively.The evaluation of life value had the scenarios dependence and“bootstrap paradox”.Under two risk backgrounds,all the educational level,monthly income and emphasis on safety of the respondents would enhance the willingness to pay(WTP),while the increase of safety satisfaction would reduce WTP.Under the influence of occupational risk,the key factors affecting WTP were the satisfaction and emphasis on guarantee of equipment and the educational level.Under the COVID-19 risk,the key factors affecting WTP were the emphasis on health and safety,educational level and monthly income.