基于有序Probit模型的铁路险兆事件影响因素识别研究

Identification of influencing factors of near-miss incidents in railway transportation based on ordered Probit model

为识别铁路险兆事件的影响因素,以宜春车务段2017年9月—2017年10月共1870条数据为样本,以铁路险兆事件等级为因变量,事件原因、环境特征和事件特征为自变量建立有序Probit模型,探究人、设备、环境和管理因素对铁路险兆事件严重影响程度。研究结果表明:设备设施未按规定防护是影响严重性险兆事件发生的主要因素;与其他人为因素相比,未执行相关作业规定对增加险兆事件严重程度有显著作用。研究结果可为铁路管理部门实现事故预控提供依据。

In order to identify the influencing factors of near-miss incidents in railway transportation,taking 1870 data of the Yichun train depot from September to October in 2017 as the samples,an ordered Probit model was established with the level of railway near-miss incidents as the dependent variable and the event causes,environmental characteristics and event characteristics as the independent variables,then the influence of human,equipment,environment and management factors on the severity of railway near-miss incidents was explored.The results showed that without protection on equipment and facilities according to the regulations was the main factor affecting the occurrence of severe near-miss incidents.Compared with other human factors,the failure to implement relevant operation regulations significantly increased the severity of near-miss incidents.The research results can provide a basis for the railway management departments to achieve the pre-control of accidents.