“一带一路”背景下中国甘蔗产业发展及跨境合作伙伴选择研究

Research on the Development of Sugarcane Industry and the Selection of Cross-border Partners in China under the Belt and Road Initiative

甘蔗产业跨境合作伙伴评价研究,对发现具备甘蔗生产和贸易潜力的合作伙伴,确定我国甘蔗产业未来合作方向具有重要意义。以南亚东南亚国家为研究对象,采用主成分分析、隶属函数分析、模糊聚类等多元分析方法,综合分析贸易流通、种植现状、发展潜力、研发能力、经济发展等14个指标,确定中国甘蔗产业跨境优先合作国家。结果表明:2012—2019年,我国甘蔗产量下降,进口量增加了1.08倍;甘蔗进口存在结构性问题,高度依赖缅甸和老挝;南亚东南亚地区潜在耕地资源丰富,当前耕地面积仅占可耕地面积的3.5%,耕作适宜程度在70%以上的土地面积占84.5%,开发潜力巨大;按合作潜力将南亚东南亚18个国家分为4类,其中,印度在甘蔗生产、研发方面最具优势,为最优考虑的甘蔗产业跨境合作对象;巴基斯坦和马来西亚甘蔗出口国际竞争力较强,与中国甘蔗贸易互补性最好,也是中国开展甘蔗产业跨境合作优先考虑的国家。

The evaluation of cross-border cooperation partners in sugarcane industry have important implications for the discovery of potential cooperation partners in sugarcane production and trade,and the determination of future cooperation direction in China’s sugarcane industry.14 indicators such as trade circulation,planting status,development potential,R&D capabilities and development capacity were used to identify the countries with the highest priority for cooperation,and the principal component analysis(PCA),membership function method,and clustering analysis were applied.The results showed that:From^(2)012 to 2019,the sugarcane output decreased,whereas the sugarcane import increased by 1.08 times.There are structural problems in sugarcane imports,which are highly dependent on Myanmar and Laos.The current cultivated land area only accounts for 3.5%of the arable land area,and the land area with farming suitability above 70%is more than 84%,so South Asia and Southeast Asia are rich in potential cultivated land resources.The 18 countries are divided into 4 categories according to their cooperation potential.India is the best choice for cross-border cooperation because of the most advantages in sugarcane production and R&D capabilities.Pakistan and Malaysia are also the priority countries for China to carry out cross-border cooperation.They have strong international competitiveness in sugarcane export and have the best complementarity with China in sugarcane trade.