乙型肝炎肝硬化代偿期伴食管-胃底静脉曲张的高危因素及多种模型的诊断价值研究

High-risk factors of esophago-gastric fundal varices in patients with HBV-related compensated cirrhosis and diagnostic value of multiple models

目的 探讨乙型肝炎肝硬化代偿期患者食管-胃底静脉曲张(EGV)的高危因素,并比较多种无创预测模型评估EGV的临床价值。方法 回顾性分析2017年1月-2019年12月于解放军总医院第五医院中心及天津市第二人民医院诊治的乙型肝炎肝硬化代偿期患者的临床资料。所有患者均接受常规生化检测、胃镜检查及FibroTouch检测,并计算谷草转氨酶与血小板比值指数(APRI)、纤维化4因子指数(FIB-4)及肝硬度-脾直径-血小板评分(LSPS)。根据胃镜结果将患者分为EGV组与无EGV组。采用单因素及logistic回归分析EGV的高危因素,绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线,并计算曲线下面积(AUC),评价各指标诊断EGV的价值。结果 470例乙型肝炎肝硬化代偿期患者中,EGV组178例,无EGV组292例。Logistic回归分析结果显示,低血小板(PLT)(OR=0.99,95%CI 0.98~0.99)、高脾直径(SD)(OR=1.02,95%CI1.01~1.03)及高肝硬度值(LSM)(OR=1.04,95%CI1.02~1.07)是EGV的高危因素(P<0.05)。LSPS预测EGV的AUC[0.75(95%CI0.71~0.79)]明显高于PLT[0.72(95%CI0.67~0.76)]、SD[0.69(95%CI0.64~0.73)]、LSM[0.67(95%CI0.63~0.72)]、APRI[0.69(95%CI0.65~0.74)]及FIB-4[0.66(95%CI0.62~0.71)],差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。EGV组的LSPS值为2.7(1.3,5.0),高于无EGV组的1.0(0.5,1.7),差异有统计学意义(P<0.001);随着EGV程度的加重,LSPS值呈上升趋势(r=0.426,P<0.001)。LSPS值>3.5提示乙型肝炎肝硬化代偿期有EGV风险,特异度为93.6%,阳性预测值为79.8%;LSPS值<1.3提示EGV风险小,敏感度为75.5%,阴性预测值为81.1%。结论 基于PLT、LSM及SD构建的LSPS可用于评估乙型肝炎肝硬化代偿期患者EGV的发生风险,较ARPI、FIB-4、LSM的预测价值更高,可使部分患者免于内镜检查。

Objective To analyze the risk factors of esophago-gastric fundal varices(EGV) in patients with hepatitis B virus(HBV)-related compensated cirrhosis, and to compare the clinical performance of multiple noninvasive prediction models for EGV evaluation. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on the clinical data of patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis from two centers from January 2017 to December 2019. All patients underwent biochemical examination, gastroscopy, and liver stiffness measurement(LSM). AST-to-platelet ratio index(APRI), Fibrosis 4 index(FIB-4) and LSM-spleen diameter(SD)-to-platelet ratio score(LSPS) were calculated. According to the results of gastroscopy, they were divided into EGV and non-EGV group. The highrisk factors of EGV were explored by binary logistic regression. The receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC) was plotted, and the area under the curve(AUC) was calculated to evaluate the clinical performance of each indicator in predicting EGV. Results A total of 470 patients were enrolled, including 292 in the non-EGV group and 178 in the EGV group. Logistic regression analysis showed low PLT(platelet)(OR=0.99, 95%CI 0.98-0.99), high SD(spleen diameter)(OR=1.02, 95%CI 1.01-1.03) and high LSM(OR=1.04, 95%CI 1.02-1.07) were high risk factors for EGV(all P<0.05). The AUC of LSPS in predicting EGV [0.75(95%CI 0.71-0.79)] was significantly higher than that of PLT [0.72(95%CI 0.67-0.76)], SD [0.69(95%CI 0.64-0.73)], LSM [0.67(95%CI 0.63-0.72)], APRI [0.69(95%CI 0.65-0.74)] and FIB-4 [0.66(95%CI 0.62-0.71)](P<0.05). The LSPS score in EGV group was significantly higher than that in non-EGV group [2.7(1.3, 5.0) vs. 1.0(0.5, 1.7), P<0.001]. With the aggravation of EGV, LSPS score showed an upward trend(r=0.426, P<0.001). The cutoff value of LSPS for high risk of EGV was >3.5, the corresponding specificity and positive predictive value(PPV) ratio were 93.6% and 79.8% respectively. The cutoff value of LSPS for low risk of EGV was <1.3, its sensitivity and negative predictive value were 75.5% and 81.1% respectively. Conclusions Incorporating three risk factors including low PLT, high LSM and SD, the LSPS in predicting EGV in patients with compensated hepatitis B cirrhosis is better than ARPI, FIB-4, or LSM, and can reduce the need for gastroscopy.