基于AHP法和物元可拓法的配电网项目风险评估模型研究

Research on Risk Assessment Model of Distribution Network Project Based on AHP Method and Matter-Element Extension Method

面对不断增加的电网投资总额,要求电网企业加强电网的精准化投资,提高电网工程风险管控能力,以实现综合效益的最大化。本文以配电网项目为研究对象,从政策、技术、经济、用户4个维度设计了配电网项目风险评价指标体系,采用AHP法和物元可拓法,构建了配电网项目风险评价综合模型,选取A市配电网项目进行算例分析。结果表明,行业相关政策、电网网架情况、项目建设成本、项目内部收益率和静态投资回收期等风险评价信息直接决定了配电网项目的投资风险。该结论对有效提高配电网精准投资管理水平具有指导意义。

Faced with the continuous increase in the total investment of the power grid,power grid companies are required to strengthen the precise investment in the power grid and improve the risk management and control capabilities of power grid projects to maximize comprehensive beneftts.Tke distribution network project is taken as the research object,the risk evaluation index system of the distribution network project is designed from the four dimensions of policy,technology,economy and users,and the AHP method and the matter-element extension method to construct the distribution network project risk are used.It is selected as the distribution network project in city A for example analysis to evaluate the comprehensive model.The results show that the investment risk of distribution network projects are determined direcdy by the risk evaluation information such as industry-related policies,conditions of power grid structure,project construction costs,project internal rate of return and static investment payback period.The conclusion is able to guide the improvement of the precise investment management level of distribution network。