无人武器变革及其对非对称安全关系的影响

Evolution of Unmanned Weapons and Its Implications for Asymmetric Security

新军事变革以来,无人武器在作战体系中发挥越来越显著的作用,得到各国的高度重视。历经百年演进,无人武器已具备侦察跟踪、试探诱骗、精确打击和支援保障四大功能。现有无人武器存在依赖遥控和自主水平低下等问题,这是制约其军事潜力发挥的主要瓶颈。未来,“网络式自主化”将成为无人武器变革的突破方向,带来“全体系”“广覆盖”“快反应”和“强协同”四大优势。叠加无人武器“零伤亡”特性所蕴含的政治影响力,弱者基于“抵消与杀伤”策略的抗争能力将受到质变挑战,同时原有差距会发生量变增大。假如缺乏科技和政治上的有力制衡,在技术垄断与社会变迁的双重影响下,非对称安全关系发生恶性演变的风险将显著增加。在“市场化战争”中,伤亡成本降低导致强权政治缺乏约束,低风险优势鼓励政客做出冒险决策,战争伦理的沦丧扭曲公众对非对称战争的认知,而弱者的极限求生手段还可能造成核扩散等“次生危害”。在西方主导的军备控制合作逐渐式微的背景下,中国需要以总体设计统筹无人武器的研发与实践,积极开发反制技术,并争取主导相关军控提议。

Since the new wave of military reforms,unmanned weapons have been playing an increasingly important role in the combat system,thus receiving high attention from all countries.In the century-old history of unmanned weapons,four prominent functions have been fully developed:reconnaissance and tracking,temptation and deception,precision strike,and logistic support.Current unmanned weapons are beset with such problems as high dependence on remote control and low levels of autonomy that constitute the main bottlenecks limiting their military potential.In the near future,“network-based autonomy” will become a breakthrough direction for the development of unmanned weapons,bringing four advantages of “whole system” “wide coverage” “quick response” and “strong synergy.” Coupled with the political influence resulting from the “zero casualty” feature of unmanned weapons,the weaker side’s resistance abilities based on the “offset and killing” strategy will suffer qualitative changes,while the original gap between the two sides will be quantitatively increased.In the event of no effective technological and political checks and balances,the risk of the vicious evolution of asymmetric security relations will significantly increase under the two-way paths of technological monopoly and social transformation.Under the prospect of “marketization warfare,” lower casualty costs will lead to a lack of constraints in power politics,the low-risk advantages will encourage politicians to make risky decisions,and the decline of war ethics will distort the public’s perception of asymmetric wars.The extreme means of survival adopted by the weaker side may cause “secondary hazards” such as nuclear proliferation.Against the backdrop of the gradual decline of the West-led arms control cooperation,China needs to coordinate the research and development of unmanned weapons and their application in an overall framework.At the same time,enough attention should be given to the efforts to actively develop countermeasure technologies and play a leading role in relevant arms control proposals.