货币政策、住房供给与房地产市场健康发展长效机制

Monetary Policy, Housing Supply and Long-term Mechanism for Health Development of Real Estate Market

基于供给侧的货币政策调控是稳妥实施房地产长效机制的重要举措,也是促进房地产业健康发展和良性循环的核心内容。货币政策通过调控“银根”进而影响企业的住房供给行为,但不同政策工具的传导机制具有异质性且存在区域差异。“强者恒强”和“船大好挡浪,浪大造大船”的政策效应以及“波动型”货币政策调控削弱了政策的调控效果。基于此,可从供给侧发力推动房地产长效机制建设需要做到供需兼顾,强化货币政策对供给侧的调控;因城施策和分类指导,畅通货币政策调控的传导路径;落实多主体供给,优化住房供给结构多元化;实施稳健的货币政策,促进房地产业健康发展和良性循环。

Supply-side monetary policy regulation is an important measure to steadily implement the long-term mechanism for real estate industry, and is also the core content to promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry. Monetary policy affects the housing supply behavior of enterprises through the regulation of “monetary root”, but the transmission mechanism of different policy tools is heterogeneous and comes with regional differences. The policy effects of ideas featuring “the strong is always strong” and “the larger ship is better at fighting waves, and the greater waves lead to even larger ships”, together with the “fluctuating” monetary policy regulation, have weakened the policy regulation effect. In this regard, to promote the establishment of long-term real estate mechanism from the supply side requires the consideration of both supply and demand, and the strengthening of the regulation and control of the supply side by monetary policy. City-specific policies and categorical guidance can remove obstacles for the transmission path of monetary policy regulation. We need to implement multi-subject supply policy, and optimize the diversification of housing supply structure. It is also necessary to implement a prudent monetary policy to promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate industry.