新冠肺炎疫情下应急医疗点的选址鲁棒配置研究

Research on robust location allocation of emergency medical points in COVID 19

为了高效防控新冠肺炎疫情的传播和救治感染者,从快速建立应急医疗点出发,建立健全完善的疫情应急响应机制。以湖北黄冈市在2020年疫情爆发初期的感染数据为例进行实证研究,通过熵权法对应急医疗点进行选址作为疫情爆发初期的应急预处理,选出最佳的应急点。考虑到应急点医疗设备不足等条件限制,同时感染人数也难以精确预知,进一步利用多面体不确定集来刻画患者数并以总成本最小为目标构建具有容量和时间窗约束的鲁棒配置模型,为最佳应急点配置大型基地医院,保证当感染者病情恶化时能得到及时治疗。结果表明,熵权法可为疫情爆发初期的应急医疗点选址提供实证参考,基于不确定患者数所构建的鲁棒配置模型可为高效开展疫情防控活动提供保障。

When COVID-19 breaks out,a quick establishment of emergency health care points can effectively control the spread of the outbreak and treat those infected.In the context of COVID-19,this paper mainly studies the location-allocation of emergency medical points combining entropy weight comprehensive evaluation model and robust allocation model.First of all,the evaluation index system is constructed by establishing the evaluation index principle of emergency point location.Thus,six evaluation indexes including construction cost,transportation convenience,the number of people that can be accommodated at the facility point,population density in the region,accessibility of patients and the number of hospitals within 10 kilometers of the facility point are determined.Then the entropy weight comprehensive evaluation model is used to screen out the best emergency medical point as the initial emergency pre-treatment of an epidemic outbreak.Secondly,considering the emergency clinic medical equipment condition is limited,The equipment can only be used for the early treatment of infected people and isolation.Therefore,a robust configuration model is used to configure large base hospitals for emergency medical points to ensure that severe patients can be sent to the nearby large hospital with complete medical facilities for rescue treatment when the emergency point can not deal with.Since it is difficult to accurately predict the number of infected patients,the number of patients is described by the polyhedral uncertainty set,and a robust allocation model with hospital capacity constraints and time window constraints is constructed to minimize the total cost.Finally,the actual data of Huanggang City in Hubei Province is used for the simulation experiment.Numerical experiments show the role of the comprehensive evaluation model of entropy weight method and robust configuration model in the practical value of the emergency clinic location configuration and the robust optimization effect,obtaining the location and configuration scheme of Huanggang emergency clinic.At the same time,the feasibility and robustness of the mathematical model and solution method are verified,and the performance and advantages of the uncertain model over the deterministic model are proved.In addition,disturbance ratio and uncertainty level have a significant influence on the base hospital configuration scheme,and decision-makers can choose the optimal configuration scheme according to their preference for uncertain risk.