能源消费碳排放时空格局及影响因素研究——以长三角城市群为例

Study on spatial-temporal dynamics of Carbon Emission from Energy Consumption and Influencing Factors in the Yangtze River Delta Region

本文结合省级能源消费统计数据与2013—2019年NPP-VIIRS夜间灯光数据,估算长三角地区的能源消费碳排放量,并对空间自相关分析与影响因素进行分析。研究表明,使用夜间灯光数据对能源消费碳排放量进行估算是可行的,并且符合精度要求。长三角城市群的碳排放量在整体上存在聚集性,局部形成了以上海、苏州为主的高聚集区。空间杜宾模型估计结果发现人口密度、城镇化水平和产业结构都会促进碳排放,而在总效应分解中人均GDP与能源消费碳排放存在倒“U”型的关系。

This paper combined provincial energy consumption statistics and NPP-VIIRS night light data from 2013 to 2019 to estimate the carbon emissions of energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta region,and conducted spatial autocorrelation analysis and influencing factors analysis.The results show that it is feasible and accurate to estimate the carbon emission of energy consumption using night light data.The carbon emission of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is aggregated on the whole,and Shanghai and Suzhou are the main high concentration areas.The estimation results of spatial Dubin model show that population density,urbanization level and industrial structure all promote carbon emissions,and there is an inverted"u"-shaped relationship between per capita GDP and carbon emissions from energy consumption in the total effect decomposition.