宏观税负对城市经济韧性的影响——基于282个地级市的实证研究

The Impact of Macro Tax Burden on Urban Economic Resilience--Empirical Research Based on 282 Prefecture-Level Cities

本文借助双向固定效应模型,使用2005-2019年中国282个地级市的4230个样本数据研究宏观税负对经济韧性的影响,研究发现:宏观税负对经济韧性呈现出倒U型的影响,过高或者过低的宏观税负都不利于区域经济的健康发展。异质性分析发现:大城市和中小城市的宏观税负对经济韧性的影响都呈现出倒U型,但大城市的影响小于中小城市;高行政级别城市宏观税负对经济韧性的影响不显著,普通城市的影响显著且呈倒U型;东部地区和中部地区宏观税负对经济韧性的倒U型影响非常显著,西部地区则不显著。机制分析发现:宏观税负是通过企业投资、居民消费和政府宏观调控能力这三个中介变量对经济韧性产生影响。基于以上研究结论,本文认为,政府应该充分发挥税收“自动稳定器”的作用,由此为进一步调整我国宏观税负水平,提升城市经济韧性提出相关政策建议。

With the help of a two-way fixed effect model,this paper uses 4,230 sample data from 282 prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2019 to study the effect of macro tax burden on economic resilience.The study found that the macro tax burden has an inverted U-shaped impact on economic resilience,and either too high or too low macro tax burden is not conducive to the healthy development of regional economy.Heterogeneity analysis found that the impact of macro tax burden on economic resilience in both large cities and small and medium-sized cities showed an inverted U shape,but the impact in large cities was smaller than that in small and medium-sized cities.The macro tax burden of high administrative level cities has no significant impact on economic resilience,while that of ordinary cities is significant and inverted U-shaped.The macro tax burden of eastern and central regions on economic resilience is very significant,but not in western China.Mechanism analysis found that the macro tax burden has an impact on economic resilience through three intermediary variables:enterprise investment,household consumption and the government's macro-control ability.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper believes that the government should give full play to the role of tax“automatic stabilizer”,and thus put forward relevant policy suggestions for further adjusting the level of China's macro tax burden and improving the resilience of urban economy.