成本收益、政策认知与农户种粮意愿研究

Cost-benefit,policy cognition and farmers’grain planting willingness

基于农产品主产区沅江市183户农户调研数据,运用有序Logit模型,分析农户个人及家庭特征、成本收益、政策认知对农户种粮意愿的影响。结果表明:1)农户种粮意愿受其自身和家庭禀赋特征影响,男性种粮意愿较强烈,农业为主的农户对农村土地依赖性较高,种粮意愿相应提升。2)农户种粮意愿受成本收益因素显著影响,生产资料价格高、耕地破碎、灌溉条件差,会增加生产成本,进而降低农户种粮意愿;而粮食价格高、兼种经济作物和农业技术培训能增加农民种粮收益,提升农户种粮意愿。3)农户种粮意愿受政策认知因素显著影响,正面的粮食补贴政策制定评价、较高的农业保险政策执行满意度及农业社会化服务、粮食安全和提高粮食收购价格的认同,均将提升农户种粮意愿。

Based on the survey data of 183 farmers in Yuanjiang city,the main agricultural production area,the ordered Logit model was used to analyze the influence of farmers’personal and family characteristics,cost-benefit and policy cognition on farmers’grain planting willingness.The results showed that:1)farmers’willingness to grow grains is affected by their own and family endowment characteristics.Males are more willing to plant grains,meanwhile farmers are more dependent on rural land,and their willingness increases accordingly.2)Farmers’willingness is significantly affected by cost-benefit and policy cognition.High prices of production materials,broken arable land and poor irrigation conditions will increase production costs and reduce the willingness,instead high grain prices,concurrently growing cash crops and agricultural technical training can increase farmers’income,it is helpful to increase farmers’willingness.3)Positive evaluation on grain subsidy policy,higher satisfaction with agricultural insurance policy implementation,recognition of agricultural socialization services,grain security and higher grain purchase prices will increase farmers’willingness.