基于城市居民累积出游经历的“吴曲线”变化研究

Research on the change of “Wu Curve”based on the accumulated travelexperience of urban residents

1997年提出的“吴曲线”因发现城市居民旅游和休闲出游市场随距离增加而衰减的现象,得出80%的出游市场集中在距离城市500km范围内的结论产生了广泛的学术影响。文中以北京、西安、武汉、上海、成都和长春为案例地,利用大样本问卷调查获取的城市居民有生以来累积出游经历数据研究20年后“吴曲线”的变化情况和城市居民出游空间结构特征。主要结论为:1)“吴曲线”发生了较大变化,城市居民80%的出游市场集中在距离城市1400km范围内。2)到访率随出游距离的增加呈幂律衰减,客源地周围目的地的空间分布格局和吸引力变化影响距离衰减作用。3)距离对中国城市居民出游行为的衰减作用趋于变小,但仍是影响城市居民出游行为的基本因素,表现为不同案例城市到访率衰减曲线的距离摩擦系数值接近,均值为0.52。4)中国城市居民的国内出游空间可划分为核心出游空间(≤500km)、重要出游空间(500km-1400km)和机会出游空间(≥1400km以外)三种类型。

"Wu Curve"has a widely academic influence because it revealed the phenomenon that the tourism and leisure travel market of urban residents in China decreases with the increase of distance,and draws a conclusion that 80%of the travel market is concentrated within 500 km from the origin city.More than 20 years after the"Wu Curve"was proposed,whether there has been a change?How has it changed?What is the type of distance decay curve of visiting rates?These are all questions worthy of investigation.Taking Beijing,Xi’an,Wuhan,Shanghai,Chengdu and Changchun as cases,we researched the change of"Wu Curve"and the visiting rate distance decay law by using large sample questionnaire data of the accumulated travel experience of urban residents in China.Finally,we found:1)80%of the travel market is concentrated within 1400km from the origin city.2)The visiting rate distance distribution curve shows power law distribution,but the uneven distribution of destinations around the sources and the change of destination attraction will distort the shape of the visiting rate distance decay curve.3)Although the distance decay rate of visiting rate tends to decrease,distance is still the basic factor affecting urban residents’traveling behaviors.And the distance friction coefficients in the visiting rate distance decay curve for residents living in different cities are similar.4)Taking the origin as the center,the domestic travel space of urban residents can be divided into three sub-spaces,including high-frequency travel space(≤500km),middle-frequency travel space(500km-1400km)and low-frequency travel space(≥1400 km)from inside to outside.