面向“碳达峰、碳中和”的2035年中国生态环境技术预见研究——基于德尔菲调查

Towards a Goal of ’Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality’:Research on Ecological and Environmental Technology Foresight Based on Delphi Survey in China 2035

“碳达峰、碳中和”已经上升成为我国未来发展的重要战略目标,2021年印发的《2030年前碳达峰行动方案》明确提出重点实施能源绿色低碳转型行动、循环经济助力降碳行动、碳汇能力巩固提升行动等“碳达峰十大行动”。由此可见,除能源技术领域以外,循环经济、碳汇等生态环境领域相关的低碳技术对实现“碳达峰、碳中和”也是至关重要。因此,面向2035年这一基本实现社会主义现代化的重要时点,遴选一批优先发展的生态环境技术课题,对于推动科技创新实现“碳达峰、碳中和”具有重要意义。基于2轮德尔菲调查的技术预见结果,应优先发展8项聚焦“碳达峰、碳中和”的生态环境技术课题,分别是:少水绿色低碳造纸技术,高精度全球变化数据产品,汇碳节水湿地恢复技术,超低排放控制技术,碳排放和减碳的影响评价及成本核算技术,全球碳、氮、水和能量循环与气候变化相互作用机理,二氧化碳捕集利用及封存技术,碳分离与能源化技术。德尔菲调查的结果显示,研发投入、法律法规政策和市场可行性是制约上述技术课题完成的主要因素。针对这些制约因素,从经费投入、制度建设、市场发展、国际合作等方面提出了相关建议。

Besides the energy sector, low-carbon technologies in the ecological and environmental fields such as circular economy and carbon sinks are also essential for achieving "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality". The purpose of this study is to select a number of priority ecological and environmental technologies by adopting the technology foresight method for the strategic goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" in 2035. The year of 2035 is an important time point for the realization of socialist modernization. The purpose of this study is also to provide a foundation for decision-making on the future layout of science and technology and to provide grounds for related policy making in this field.This study mainly adopts the Delphi method to carry out a large-scale technology foresight research in China. The specific steps include focusing on the technological needs in the field of ecology and environment in 2035, identifying the initial future technological projects by collecting expert discussions, and finally selecting 125 most important future technological projects in the field of ecology and environment facing the year of 2035 by integrating the collective wisdom of experts through two rounds of large-scale Delphi questionnaires. Most of them are not related to the low carbon target, 8of them are related to the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" target, which is an important direction for all industries to focus on.Based on the technical foresight results of the two rounds of Delphi survey, eight ecological and environmental future technology projects should be developed as priorities, namely, green low-carbon paper technology with less water;high-precision global change data products;carbon and water-saving wetland restoration technology;ultra-low emission control technology;carbon emission and carbon reduction impact evaluation and costing technology;global carbon, nitrogen, water and energy cycles interacting with climate change mechanism;carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage technology;carbon separation and energy technology.Overall, it seems that most of the eight future technology projects can be realized around 2030. From the perspective of the main R&D countries of the eight technology topics, China is relatively behind the US, EU and Japan. China needs to significantly increase support for the corresponding technologies to ensure that China is not left behind in the new round of technology catch-up.The Delphi survey shows that, in the order of occurrence frequency, the eight constraints on the development of technology issues include technical feasibility, R&D investment, infrastructure, regulations, policies and standards, and commercial viability. In response to these constraints, this paper recommends(1) increasing stable R&D investment, deploying a number of forward-looking and strategic national key R&D programs and National Natural Science Foundation projects;(2) strengthening all-round and multi-channel international science and technology cooperation, and enhancing technology cooperation among developing countries, especially the "Belt and Road" partner countries;(3) creating an environment conducive to technological progress, accelerating the establishment of a sound legal and regulatory system led by the Law on Addressing Climate Change, focusing on the impact evaluation of carbon emissions and carbon reduction, and gradually incorporating the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" target into the government assessment system after detailed decomposition;(4) establishing a market-driven technology development mechanism, accelerating the development of carbon capture and storage, carbon trading and other service industries, adopting fiscal and financial means to stimulate low-carbon industries, increase relevant product and service innovation, and promote enterprises to gradually become the principal component of technological innovation in this field.In the future, we can carry out special technology foresight activities centering on low-carbon technologies with other methods such as scenario planning and bibliometrics to more accurately identify priority technologies in the field of ecology and environment with the target of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality".