基于改进层次分析法的湖北省雷电灾害风险区划

Risk zoning of lightning disaster in Hubei Province based on improved analytic hierarchy process

准确判定评价指标的相对重要性是雷电灾害风险区划的关键技术之一。为解决层次分析法(AHP)由人为经验方式判定指标相对重要性存在的问题,提出一种改进的AHP法(IAHP);同时,利用湖北省2007—2020年闪电监测、数字地形高程、土壤电导率及经济社会等资料,选取雷击大地密度、地闪强度、海拔高度、地形起伏度、土壤电导率、人口密度、GDP密度7个参数作为湖北省雷电灾害风险的评价指标,构建雷电灾害风险评价模型,据此对湖北省雷电灾害进行综合评价与风险区划。结果表明:湖北省雷电灾害风险可分为高、较高、中、较低、低5个等级,较高、高风险区主要位于鄂东大别山以南、幕阜山以北的平原和低山丘陵地区,以及江汉平原大部和鄂西山区向江汉平原的过渡带;较低、低风险区主要位于鄂西的恩施、神农架、十堰、宜昌西部和襄阳西南部;湖北其它地区,大部为雷电灾害中风险等级。对比检验显示,各区县雷电灾害风险指数与历年实际雷灾频次呈正相关,且相关性较好,基本反映了湖北省雷电灾害的潜在风险。

Determining accurately the relative importance of evaluation indicators is one of the key technologies for lightning disaster risk zoning.In order to solve the problem of analytic hierarchy process(AHP)in judging the relative importance of indices by human experience,we proposed an improved AHP method(IAHP).In addition,using the lightning monitoring data from 2007 to 2020,digital terrain elevation data,soil conductivity data,as well as economic and social data of Hubei,we selected seven parameters:lightning strike density,lightning intensity,altitude,terrain undulation,soil conductivity,population density,and GDP density,as the risk evaluation indices of lightning disaster in Hubei Province,and then established a lightning disaster risk assessment model.Based on this model,we conducted a risk zoning of lightning disasters in Hubei province.The results indicate that the lightning disaster risk in Hubei Province can be divided into five levels,i.e.,higher risk,sub high risk,medium risk,inferior risk,and lower risk.The higher and sub high risk areas mainly locate in the plains and low mountain and hilly terrain between the south of Dabie Mountain and the north of Mufu Mountain in eastern Hubei,as well as the most of Jianghan Plain and the transition zone from the western Hubei mountainous area to the Jianghan Plain.The inferior and lower risk areas mainly locate in Enshi,Shennongjia,Shiyan,western Yichang,and southwestern Xiangyang.In other areas of Hubei,most of them are mainly medium risk of lightning disaster.The lightning disaster risk index of each district or county and the lightning disaster frequency show good positive correlation,which reflects basically the potential risk of lightning disaster in Hubei Province.