地缘经济因素的贸易效应——来自“一带一路”沿线国家的证据

Trade Effects of Geo-economic Factors:Evidence from Countries along the Belt and Road

基于经济地理学的指标构建方法,本文结合2000—2018年我国对外贸易数据,从空间分布与经济关联两个角度测算了地缘经济因素对我国出口贸易的影响。结果表明,第一,区域内各国经济正向集聚的邻近空间分布抑制了我国支柱性行业的出口增长,然而由于外部经贸环境的变化、我国自身出口结构优化以及贸易合作的广泛开展所带来的调节作用,上述效应呈现出从抑制转变为促进的趋势;第二,贸易伙伴多元化空间分布为我国出口增长带来了持续的动力,且“一带一路”倡议进一步扩大了这一地缘经济因素对双边贸易的促进程度;第三,我国与其他国家之间的地缘经济联系显著促进了出口贸易;第四,地缘经济互补关系带动了我国对中低规模贸易伙伴的出口增长。在“一带一路”倡议背景下,我国同沿线国家在贸易往来、资金流动方面的合作为各方的经贸发展提供了新机遇。未来我国将在此基础上加强同其他国家的地缘经济联系,提高经济合作质量,促进人类命运共同体的构建。

With the development of globalization,geo-economic factors formed by the interaction of countries in a certain geographical space have a significant impact on international trade and investment.However,how do those factors affect international trade specifically?Related studies are not powerful in answering this question.Based on several basic micro-level assumptions of Anderson&Wincoop(2003),we construct a theoretical model to analyze the trade effect brought by geo-economic factors.Besides,we draw lessons from existing index construction methods in the field of economic geography,select related trade data of China from 2000 to 2018 and empirically exam the impact of geo-economic factors on China’s export from two aspects,namely,spatial distribution and economic relations.The research results are as follows.(1)The adjacent spatial distribution of countries with similar economic scale in the region decreases the export growth of China’s pillar industries,and this effect is the most significant in the samples of Eurasian countries.However,with the change of the economic environment,the optimization of China’s own export structure and active trade cooperation,the negative effect tends to be positive.(2)For China,the multiple spatial distribution of trading partners within the region brings a sustainable driving force to export growth in pillar industries,and this positive effect is the most significant among small-scale and medium-scale trading partners.The Belt and Road Initiative has further expanded the positive effect on exports and imports between China and countries along the Belt and Road.(3)The geo-economic relations between China and trading partners promote China’s export trade significantly.(4)The complementarity of bilateral geo-economy significantly contributes to the growth of pillar industries’export to small-scale and medium-scale trading partners in China,but for high-scale trading partners,the effect is not significant.The robustness tests,like instrumental variable regression,and changing measurement methods,get the same conclusion.This paper has the following three theoretical and empirical contributions.Firstly,under the condition that geo-economy has become the leading factor in international relations,we explore China’s foreign trade development during the construction of Belt and Road Initiative from the perspective of geo-economy,and brings geo-economic factors into the framework of trade development.Specifically,we integrate and expand existing research paradigm in economic geography,and construct geo-economic quantitative indicators from multiple aspects such as the geo-economic spatial distribution,the intensity of geo-economic relations between China and countries along the Belt and Road,the types of the geo-economic relations.In particular,combined with the current situation of the Belt and Road Initiative,more reasonable variables are selected for indicator construction.Secondly,based on the assumptions in the classical models of international trade,this paper analyzes the trade effects of geo-economic factors in specific models,and confirms the relevant assumptions by empirical methods.Compared with the traditional gravity model,we focus on the trade effects brought by the geo-economic characteristics of economic interaction among countries,instead of the importing countries’own economic features,like GDP.Finally,in the process of empirical analysis,we consider heterogeneity factors such as spatial distribution,industry differences and trade volume to provide evidence for empirical results.With the help of corresponding mechanism tests,we find the moderating role of many features,such as export structure,trade cost,the Belt and Road Initiative and regional trade cooperation,in geo-economic factors.Generally speaking,against the background of the Belt and Road Initiative,this paper combines the construction of geo-economic indicators in economic geography and related trade theories,systematically exams geo-economic factors’trade effects on China’s international trade with countries along the Belt and Road.