动态随机一般均衡模型在中国的研究进展与展望

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Research in China:A Review and Prospect

近十余年来,动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型研究在解释中国经济波动和评估宏观政策等方面取得重要进展。新时代中国宏观经济研究需要进一步运用科学方法对中国经济发展面临的重大问题展开深入分析。本文展望DSGE研究的前沿领域,特别是具有微观基础的异质性个体宏观建模方法和动态全局求解为主的定量分析方法,探讨其在研究中国宏观经济重大问题中的应用前景。在中国经济进入新发展阶段的大背景下,立足于DSGE模型研究已有的重要进展,中国宏观经济波动研究有望通过加强模型微观机制刻画、改进定量分析方法,构建出有中国特色的宏观经济波动分析框架,为服务新时代中国经济发展做出更大贡献。

Over the past decade,the research using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)models has made important progress in explaining China’s economic fluctuations and evaluating macro policies.Macroeconomic research in China in the new era needs to further apply scientific approaches to conduct an in-depth analysis of the major issues facing China’s economic development.We explore the frontier of DSGE research,especially the heterogeneous agent modeling method with micro-foundations and the quantitative analysis based on global dynamic solutions,and discuss the prospects of its applications in the key macroeconomic issues in China.From the perspective of the frontier DSGE methodology,as China’s economy is embracing a new stage of development,the study of macroeconomic fluctuations in China should focus on building an analytical framework with rich Chinese characteristics by strengthening micro-foundations and improving the quantitative methods.This will ensure that China’s macroeconomic research can produce high-quality and original contributions to meet the call of the era and serve the world at large.