税制改革的健康效应——基于中老年人自杀行为的证据

Health Effects of Tax Reform——Evidence Based on Suicidal Behavior of Middle-aged and Elderly People

本研究利用取消农业税政策分批分次、逐步推广的特点,采用渐进性双重差分法估计农业税改革对我国中老年人自杀行为的影响及其作用机制。结果显示,取消农业税显著导致了所在地区中老年人自杀数量的降低,该抑制作用主要通过增加农村居民福利水平和改善地方政府行为能力两个传导路径实现。取消农业税的影响也表现出异质性:中部地区的作用最明显;农村中老年人的反应更加敏感;男性和65岁以上的老年人是税制改革效应的最大受益群体。

Based on China’s agricultural tax cancellation policy,this study uses time-varying Difference-in-Differences method to estimate the impact of tax reform on residents’suicide behavior and its mechanism.It shows that the abolition of agricultural tax system significantly inhibited the growth of the number of suicides of the elderly in the region,and this inhibition was mainly achieved by increasing the rural residents’welfare and improving the behavior ability of local governments.The impact shows heterogeneity:the central region is the most effective;rural middle-aged and elderly people are more sensitive;men and the elderly over 65 are the biggest beneficiaries.