基于渗流理论的铁路列车延误传播模型研究

Railway Delay Propagation Model Based on Method of Percolation Theory

铁路列车的高密度开行增加了列车延误发生的频率,如果不能得到有效控制,大规模连带延误会导致路网性能的级联失效.针对铁路的复杂网络特征,基于交通渗流理论,分析了列车开行过程中初始延误和连带延误的形成机理,通过q-指数分布拟合和定义传播比例、传播概率分别给出了初始延误和连带延误的计算式,并以列车延误大小作为渗流理论中反映区间通行能力的指标,计算了不同时刻的渗流概率和延误传播强度,并以此构建了列车延误传播模型.以成渝地区铁路实例数据模拟了列车延误传播过程,验证了渗流理论的适用性;对模型参数分析表明,车站周转率和连带延误中传播比例都会造成延误传播强度增加,且后者还会导致延误传播速度加快;仿真结果为铁路列车延误的运行调整提供了理论支撑.

High density of railway trains increases the frequency of train delays.If it cannot be effectively controlled, large-scale joint delays will lead to cascading failure in network.In view of the complex characteristics of railway network, based on the traffic percolation theory, the paper analyzes the formation mechanism of initial delay and joint delay in the process of train operation, and gives the calculation formula of initial delay and joint delay respectively through q-exponential distribution fitting and defining the propagation proportion and propagation probability, and takes the size of train delay as the index reflecting the capacity of the railway section in the percolation theory, in which percolation probability and delay propagation intensity at different times were calculated.Based on this, the train delay propagation model was established.The process of train delay propagation is simulated with the case data of Chengdu-Chongqing railway, and the applicability of the percolation theory is verified.The analysis of the model parameters shows that both the station turnover rate and the propagation proportion in the joint delay will lead to the increase of the delay propagation intensity, and the latter will also lead to the acceleration of the delay propagation speed.The results provide theoretical support for the operation adjustment of railway train delays.