概率判断中合取谬误的成因与消解

The Causes and Solution of Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment

合取判断是概率判断的一种重要类型,但是在判断过程中会出现合取命题概率大于合取支概率的错误,其产生与题目陈述自身没有关系。以往认为合取谬误是个体在判断过程中采用了代表性启发式策略而导致的,但是这种理论只能解释题目陈述中含有事物相关特征描述而产生的错误,不能解释题目陈述中没有事物相关特征描述而产生的谬误。因此,基于双系统思维加工理论提出了新的解释,直觉思维系统的替代机制和分析思维系统遵循的最小努力法则共同导致了合取谬误,并提出了新的消解方案。

Conjunction judgment is an important type of probability judgment,but in the process of judgment,there will be a mistake that the probability of conjunctive statement is greater than the probability of conjuncts,which has nothing to do with the statement of problem itself.In the past,it was thought that the conjunction fallacy was caused by the representative heuristic strategy adopted by individuals in the process of judgment,but this theory can only explain the mistake caused by the description of relevant characteristics of things in the statement of problem,and cannot explain the fallacy caused by the nonexistence of description of relevant characteristics of things in the statement of problem.Therefore,a new explanation is put forward based on the dual system thinking processing theory.The substitution mechanism of intuitive thinking system and the least effort rule followed by analytical thinking system jointly lead to the conjunction fallacy,and a new solution is put forward.