供需耦合协调视域下新疆旅游供给侧改革研究

Research on Tourism Supply-Side Reform in Xinjiang from the Perspective of Supply-Demand Coupling Coordination

新疆旅游供需耦合协调关系面临外部优质耦合内部结构失衡的困境,供给侧结构性改革存在复杂性和挑战性。利用耦合协调模型探究供需系统耦合协调发展程度、时序演变趋势,通过测度供给子维度与需求侧的耦合协调度探究供给侧内部的结构性矛盾和深层次问题。最后,采用改进的熵权-TOPSIS法和效度模型衡量旅游供给效度及与旅游业发展质量之间的差异,探索低供给效度阶段供给子维度时序演变的结构关系。研究表明:新疆旅游供给系统经历内在波动增长后明显改善;供需系统耦合协调的等级从中度失调逐渐发展到当前的优质协调,供需系统经历了从无序到有序、失调到协调的耦合过程;供需滞后类型从需求滞后转变为当期的供给滞后型,旅游需求增长速度远大于供给增长速度。综上,新疆旅游供给系统在接待、服务、文化供给子维度存在深层矛盾,这是日后改革的着力点。

The coupling and coordination relationship between tourism supply and demand in Xinjiang is faced with the dilemma of high-quality external coupling and unbalanced internal structure,and the supply-side structural reform is complicated and challenging.The coupling coordination model is used to explore the development degree and time series evolution trend of the coupling coordination of the supply and demand system,and the internal structural contradictions and deep-seated problems of the supply side are explored by measuring the coupling coordination degree between the supply sub-dimension and the demand side.Finally,the improved entropy weight-TOPSIS method and validity model are used to measure the difference between tourism supply validity and tourism development quality,and to explore the structural relationship of the temporal evolution of supply subdimension in the stage of low supply validity.The results show that the tourism supply system in Xinjiang has improved obviously after experiencing internal fluctuation growth.The level of coupling coordination of supply and demand system gradually develops from moderate dissonance to high quality coordination at present,and the coupling process of supply and demand system is from disorder to order,dissonance to coordination.The type of lag between supply and demand changes from demand lag to supply lag in the current period,and the growth rate of tourism demand is much higher than that of supply.To sum up,the deep contradictions of Xinjiang’s tourism supply system exist in the sub-dimensions of reception,service and cultural supply.