2023年中国货币政策展望--基于信用环境的视角

Prospect of China’s Monetary Policy in 2023-Based on the Perspective of Credit Environment

2022年,我国社会融资规模增速一波三折,尽管货币政策积极发力,信用环境并未出现实质性改善。本文首先回顾2022年社会融资规模及人民币贷款的结构性特征,而后预判2023年“稳信用”面临的货币政策环境、当下信贷投放的亮点与难点、制造业贷款的潜力、基建贷款的后劲及房地产贷款的走向,最后对2023年社会融资规模做出前瞻性预判。结论是:2023年货币政策总量的宽松有望维持,结构性再贷款工具或加速投放,助力信用总量的“稳”与结构的“优”。预计2023年新增社会融资规模36万亿元左右,年末增速接近10.3%,持平或略高于2022年末。

In 2022,the increase in China’s aggregate financing was volatile.Although monetary policy was proactive,the credit environment didn’t show significant improvement.This paper firstly review the structural features of aggregate financing and yuan loans in 2022.Then,we make predictions on factors influencing“maintaining credit”,such as monetary policy environment,highlights and challenges of current credit delivery,potential for manufacturing loans,stamina for infrastructure loans,and the likely trend of real estate loans.We also make a prediction of aggregate financing in 2023.Our main conclusions are monetary policy will remain accommodative in 2023,and structural relending tools might be used more frequently,which would be helpful in stabilizing the total amount of credit and optimizing the credit structure.We expect the new aggregate financing would reach about 36 trillion yuan in 2023,with a year-over-year growth rate of about 10.3%at the end of 2023.The growth rate of aggregate financing at the end of 2023 might be roughly the same as or slightly higher than that in 2022.