交叉口车车碰撞事故车损程度的影响要素

Influencing factors of vehicle damage degree in vehicle-vehicle collision accident at intersection

以国家车辆事故深度调查体系(NAIS)中528例事故数据为样本,分析了城市交叉口车车事故严重性的影响因素、事故发生的时间段分布及车辆损失分布;以车辆损失状态、伤亡状态作为因变量,建立了双变量有序Probit模型。结果表明:人为因素、车辆类型、碰撞位置、路灯和交通信号灯状态,均显著影响事故严重性;超速驾驶导致事故的死亡率上升15.49%、酒后驾驶导致车辆报废的可能性达5.92%;无交通信号灯使交叉口事故严重性升级;碰撞位置显著影响车辆损坏严重性,左侧面碰撞造成车辆局部明显变形的概率比右侧高2.92%。因此,考虑车辆损失状态可为事故因素分析提供新的视角。

The factors affecting the vehicle to vehicle severity accidents at urban intersections were analyzed by taking the 528 cases of the accidents data selected from the(China) National Automobile Accident Indepth Investigation System(NAIS) as the samples with analyzing time period distribution and the vehicle loss distribution. A bivariate ordered Probit model were established by taking the severity of the casualty and vehicle loss as the dependent variables. The results show that the human factors, the vehicle type, the collision location, the street light and the signal status affect the accident severity significantly;speeding increase the death probability by 15.49%, drunk driving increase the vehicle scrapping probability by 5.92%;No traffic lights escalates the accident severity;collision location affects the vehicle damage severity significantly;and the left side collision causes significant vehicle local deformation is 2.92% higher than the right side. Therefore,considering the vehicle damage state may provide a new perspective for accident factor analysis.