大中型工业企业利润增长驱动因素的分解及演变(2001—2020)

Decomposition and Evolution of the Driving Factors for Profit Growth of Large and Medium-sized Industrial Enterprises from 2001 to 2020

采用LMDI数值分解法对大中型工业企业主营利润指标的研究表明,2001—2020年市场规模是驱动利润增长最重要的因素,其次是经营效益因素,行业结构的变化影响很小。分2006/2001年、2011/2006年、2016/2012年和2020/2016年四期看,市场规模效应在第2期达到最大正向作用后不断下降,在第4期表现为负向效应;经营效益因素在前2期表现为稳定的正向效应,在第3期转为负向效应后在第4期成为唯一的正向效应因素;行业结构因素在第1-3期和第4期分别表现为正向和负向效应,但作用较小。因此,促进工业企业主营利润持续高质增长应注重稳定和扩大市场需求,尤其是国内需求规模,促进工业企业依靠科技进步提高利润创造能力,加快推动行业结构向以先进制造业为主体的结构转换。

Research on the main profit indicators of large and medium-sized industrial enterprises using the LMDI numerical decomposition method shows that from 2001 to 2020,market size was the most important factor driving profit growth, followed by the operating efficiency factor, and changes in the industry structure had little impact.Looking from the four periods of 2006/2001,2011/2006,2016/2012 and 2020/2016,the market size effect continued to decline after reaching the maximum positive effect in the second period, and showed a negative effect in the fourth period.The operating benefit factor showed a stable positive effect in the first two periods, and became the only positive effect factor in the fourth period after turning into a negative effect in the third period.The industry structure factors showed positive effects in the first three periods and negative in the 4 th period, but the effects were small.Therefore, to promote the sustained and high-quality growth of the main profits of industrial enterprises, we should pay attention to stabilizing and expanding market demand, especially the scale of domestic demand.We should encourage industrial enterprises to make profits by taking advantage of scientific and technological progress, and speed up the transformation of the industry structure to the structure with advanced manufacturing as the main body.