黄土丘陵沟壑区聚落形态的组织机制与模拟演化研究——以陕北米脂县东沟为例

Organization mechanism of settlement morphology in hilly-gully loess region and its evolution simulation:Case study of Donggou,Mizhi county,Northern Shaanxi province

黄土丘陵沟壑区具有复杂的地形地貌和丰富的地方空间基因,散落其间的聚落在适应地貌、气候等自然环境的漫长过程中呈现出独特的人地关系。以米脂县东沟聚落为对象,从微观主体视角揭示了沟壑区聚落空间的组织机制,据此建立聚落形态衍生模型,模拟预测当地聚落空间形态的发展趋势。研究发现:1)居民个体选址择优与聚落邻域互动牵引是影响黄土丘陵沟壑区聚落空间组织的主要动因与机制。一方面东沟居民在聚落选址过程中对自然环境、农业生产、服务设施等因素具有较强的择优偏好;另一方面东沟聚落形态的演化还伴随着邻里聚合与分化、邻里吸引与互斥两种衍生逻辑。2)根据对2020年至2040年东沟聚落形态发展路径的预测,东沟中的聚落用地规模增长到30%之前,聚落仍将在沟口和中前段挖掘开发潜力;聚落用地规模增长幅度在30%~50%的过程中,新增聚落主要在沟谷中后段的沟谷交叉处呈团块状集聚;聚落用地规模增长幅度达到50%~60%时,聚落将在沟谷末梢和支毛沟内少量蔓延。

The hilly and gully region on the Loess Plateau is characterized by varied topography and abundant local spatial genes.Local settlements in this region show a unique human-land relationship in the long process of adapting to the natural environment such as landform and climate.Taking Donggou settlement in Mizhi county as an example with the help of cellular automata,this research reveals the organization mechanism of settlement from individual perspective,establishes a logistic derivation model of settlement form,and then predicts the future development of settlements in gully through simulation.The study shows that:1)individual site selection and interaction between neighborhood are the main reason and mechanism that affect the spatial organization of settlements in the hilly-gully loess region.On the one hand,Donggou residents have a strong preference for natural environment,agricultural production,service facilities and other factors in the process of settlement site selection,on the other hand,the morphology of Donggou settlements expand with two logics of agglomeration and dispersion.2)According to the prediction of the development path of Donggou settlement form from 2020 to 2040,the settlements will continue to expand at the exits and front sections of gullies before the landuse scale of the settlements in Donggou increases to 30%;when the land use scale increases from 30%to 50%,the new settlements will expand in the middle and back sections of gullies and concentrate at the intersection of gullies,and the settlement will spread a little in the tributary gully of back sections of Donggou when the proportion reaches 50%~60%.