基于AFC数据的城市轨道交通乘客出行弹性研究

Research on Passenger Travel Elasticity of Urban Rail Transit based on AFC Data

以北京市轨道交通AFC记录为依托,从时间、空间和出行强度3个维度定义波动系数,从乘客稳定性角度构建分类指标体系,使用SPSS Modeler对目标乘客进行聚类,以满足大样本量数据处理需求,根据聚类结果进一步分析乘客弹性出行特征,定义弹性出行乘客.本研究以乘客群体视角,提出1种识别乘客是否持个人交通卡出行的方法,并判断轨道交通弹性出行乘客,挖掘乘客出行规律,为相关交通策略制定提供一定的理论支撑.

In order to identify elastic passengers of urban rail transit,this paper constructs an objective passenger classification index by defining fluctuation coefficients in three dimensions:time,space and travel intensity based on Beijing urban rail transit AFC data.Then the SPSS Modeler is used to cluster the passengers to meet the computation requirements of large data set.The clustering results assist us to analyze passengers’travel elasticity.A methodology to identify whether a passenger is traveling with a personal smart card and to determine the rail transit elastic passengers,from the perspective of a passenger group is proposed.This study mines passenger travel patterns and provides method support for travel demand management.