数字普惠金融对居民消费的影响研究——基于中国部分县域的数据

Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on Promotion of Residents’ Consumption——On the Basis of Data of Some Counties in China

基于中国家庭追踪调查、北京大学数字普惠金融指数和《中国县域统计年鉴》2016年和2018年县域层面的数据,运用固定效应模型,实证检验了数字普惠金融对城乡居民消费的影响。结果表明,数字普惠金融会显著促进居民消费;数字金融覆盖广度和使用深度均显著促进消费,普惠金融数字化程度则显著抑制消费。通过工具变量以及缩短样本期的方法,证明结论稳健可靠。城乡以及区域异质性分析结果表明:数字普惠金融对农村地区居民以及经济落后地区居民的促进作用更加强烈。此外,在消费类别异质性分析中,数字普惠金融的发展会显著促进生存型消费,显著抑制发展与享受型消费,不利于消费结构优化;在八大类消费中,对食品消费的促进作用最为显著。因此,我国需要大力发展数字普惠金融,以加强农村地区和经济落后地区金融基础设施的建设和提高居民可支配收入。

On the basis of the data from the Chinese Family Panel Studies(CFPS), The Peking University Digital Financial Inclusion Index of China(DFII) and China’s County-Level Statistical Yearbook at county level in 2016 and 2018, the impact of digital inclusive finance on the consumption of urban and rural residents was tested empirically by using the fixed effect model. The results show that digital inclusive finance can significantly promote household consumption. The coverage and depth of digital finance can significantly promote consumption, while the digitalization of inclusive finance can significantly inhibit consumption. Through instrumental variables and the method of shortening the sample period, it is proved that the conclusion is robust and reliable. The results of the analysis of urban-rural and regional heterogeneity show that digital inclusive finance plays a stronger role in promoting rural residents and residents in economically backward areas. Besides, in the analysis of heterogeneity of consumption categories, the development of digital inclusive finance can significantly promote survival consumption, significantly inhibit development and enjoyment consumption, and be not conducive to the optimization of consumption structure. Among the eight categories of consumption, the promotion of food consumption is the most significant. Therefore, China needs to promote consumption growth by vigorously developing digital inclusive finance, strengthening the construction of financial infrastructure in rural areas and economically backward areas, and improving residents’ disposable income.