产业结构、空间溢出与碳排放强度

Industrial structure,spatial spillover and carbon emission intensity

发展绿色低碳经济,实现碳达峰和碳中和目标是我国的重大发展战略,而调整产业结构是发展绿色低碳经济的关键路径之一.选取2005—2019年中国30个省区市(不包含西藏自治区、港澳台地区)的面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型实证考察产业结构调整对碳排放强度的影响.研究发现:我国省区市碳排放强度存在显著的正向溢出效应;产业结构合理化和高级化能降低本省区市碳排放强度,产业结构高级化有助于相邻省区市碳减排,而与之不同的是产业结构合理化不利于相邻省区市碳减排;产业结构调整对碳排放强度的影响存在区域异质性.研究结论对于区域合作调整产业结构,共同制定碳减排政策有重要的应用价值.

Developing a green low-carbon economy and achieving the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutralization are China’s major development strategies,and adjusting the industrial structure is one of the key paths to develop a green low-carbon economy.The panel data of 30 provinces in China(excluding Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2005 to 2019 is selected and the Spatial Dubin Model is employed for an empirical study of the impact of industrial structure adjustment on carbon emission intensity.It is found that there is a significantly positive spillover effect in the intensity of carbon emissions in China;The rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure can reduce the intensity of carbon emission inside a province,and the upgrading of industrial structure in a province is conducive to the carbon emission reduction of adjacent provinces;however,the rationalization of industrial structure in one province is not conducive to the carbon emission reduction in its neighbouring provinces;There is regional heterogeneity in the impact of industrial structure adjustment on carbon emission intensity.The findings have important application value for regional cooperation to adjust industrial structure and jointly formulate carbon emission reduction policies.