中国与CPTPP国家贸易效率与潜力测算——基于时变随机前沿引力模型

Trade efficiency and potential measurement between China and CPTPP countries——Based on time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model

在总结中国与CPTPP成员国贸易特征的基础上,通过建立时变随机前沿引力模型,分析中国对CPTPP成员国出口的影响因素,并测算出口效率、出口潜力和拓展空间,研究表明:贸易非效率项中,CPTPP成员国班轮联通性、贸易自由度、与中国存在自贸协议等多项因素对中国出口具有显著正向影响;关税则具有显著负向影响;投资自由度和外币汇率的影响不显著。中国对CPTPP成员国出口效率可分为快速增长和增速放缓两个阶段,CPTPP生效未对中国出口效率产生明显的影响。中国对不同国家出口效率差异较大,对日本、新加坡的出口效率基本保持在高位,而对新西兰、秘鲁、文莱的出口效率较低。从贸易拓展空间考虑,应重点关注加拿大、墨西哥、新西兰、秘鲁和文莱市场,通过加强国家间运输便利、升级自贸协定等措施,进一步降低贸易壁垒,提升中国对相关国家的出口潜力。

On the basis of summarizing the characteristics of trade between China and CPTPP member countries,this paper analyzes the factors affecting China’s exports to CPTPP member countries by establishing a time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model, and measures export efficiency, export potential and expansion space.The research shows that among trade inefficiency items, liner connectivity, trade freedom, and the existence of free trade agreements with China have significant positive effects on China’s exports;tariff has a significant negative impact;the influence of investment freedom and foreign exchange rate is not significant. China’s export efficiency to CPTPP member countries can be divided into two stages: rapid growth and slow growth. The entry into force of CPTPP has no significant impact on China’s export efficiency. China’s export efficiency to different countries varies greatly. Its export efficiency to Japan and Singapore is basically high, while its export efficiency to New Zealand, Peru and Brunei is low. From the perspective of trade expansion space, we should focus on the markets of Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru and Brunei, further reduce trade barriers and enhance China’s export potential to relevant countries by strengthening transport facilitation among countries and upgrading free trade agreements.