“一带一路”背景下人民币国际化影响因素的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Influencing Factors of RMB Internationalization in the Context of the Belt and Road Initiative

面对复杂多变的国际国内形势,以习近平同志为核心的党中央统筹中华民族伟大复兴战略全局和世界百年未有之大变局,高瞻远瞩地提出推动共建“一带一路”的重大合作倡议,受到了世界各国的广泛关注。党的二十大报告指出“推动共建‘一带一路’高质量发展”“有序推进人民币国际化”,深度参与全球产业分工和合作,维护多元稳定的国际经济格局和经贸关系。面对复杂困难的局面,抓住全球经济格局重塑所带来的独特机遇,在“一带一路”倡议背景下稳步提高人民币国际化水平具有重要意义。本文基于“一带一路”倡议背景,选取2002—2021年时间序列数据,采用VAR模型和脉冲响应分析研究经济实力、金融市场发展水平、币值稳定性对人民币国际化的影响。研究发现:第一,国家经济实力对人民币国际化有着正向影响且时滞性较弱;第二,金融市场发展水平对人民币国际化有着短期负向、中长期正向的影响;第三,人民币币值稳定性对人民币国际化有着短期正向、中长期负向的影响且有时滞性;三种影响因素的长期影响都趋于平稳。

The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC) pointed out that “promoting the joint construction of high-quality development of the the Belt and Road”, “orderly promoting the internationalization of RMB”, deeply participating in the global industrial division and cooperation, and maintaining a diversified and stable international economic pattern and economic and trade relations. Firstly, this paper comprehensively summarizes and analyzes the domestic literature on “the Belt and Road” and “RMB internationalization”;Secondly, it combs the development process and current situation of RMB internationalization, clarifies the important role of the “the Belt and Road”initiative in promoting RMB internationalization, analyzes the problems faced in the process of RMB internationalization, and clarifies the influencing factors of RMB internationalization;Finally, based on the background of the “the Belt and Road” initiative, this paper selects time series data from 2002 to 2021, and uses VAR model and impulse response analysis to study the impact of economic strength, financial market development level, and currency stability on RMB internationalization. The research finds that: first, the national economic strength has a positive impact on the internationalization of RMB and the time lag is weak;Second, the level of financial market development has a short-term negative, mediumand long-term positive impact on RMB internationalization;Third, the stability of the RMB value has a short-term positive,mediumand long-term negative impact on the internationalization of the RMB, and sometimes hysteretic;The long-term effects of the three factors tend to be stable. This paper provides new theoretical and empirical evidence for further deepening the “the Belt and Road” and steadily promoting RMB internationalization in the new era.