自回归求和滑动平均模型在河南省出生缺陷发生率预测中的应用

Application of autoregressive integrated moving average model in the incidence prediction of birth defects in Henan Province

目的应用自回归求和滑动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型对河南省月度出生缺陷发生率进行预测,为制定科学的出生缺陷防控措施提供参考依据。方法收集2011年1月至2020年12月河南省37所国家级出生缺陷监测点所有围产儿的出生缺陷监测数据,分别构建总体、城镇和乡村出生缺陷发生率的ARIMA乘积季节模型,对2020年数据进行回代,评价拟合效果,同时利用所构建模型预测2021~2022年月度出生缺陷发生率。结果分别使用ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)_(12)、ARIMA(2,1,2)(2,1,0)_(12)、ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)_(12)模型预测2020年河南省总体、城镇和乡村月度出生缺陷发生率,计算2020年预测值和真实值的平均相对误差分别为7.26%、8.80%和10.13%;2020年预测值和真实值动态趋势基本一致,真实值均落在预测值的95%置信区间内;预测2021~2022年河南省月度出生缺陷发生率呈现持续上升趋势。结论ARIMA模型能对河南省出生缺陷发生率进行较好地预测,有望为出生缺陷防控措施的制定提供科学依据。

Objective Using autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model,monthly incidence of birth defects was predicted in Henan Province,so as to provide reference for formulating scientific measures for prevention and control of birth defects.Methods From January 2011 to December 2020,all perinatal birth defect monitoring data were collected from 37 national birth defect monitoring sites in Henan Province.ARIMA product season models of birth defect incidence in population,towns and villages were constructed,and the 2020 data were backdated to evaluate the fitting effect.At the same time,the constructed model was used to predict the monthly incidence of birth defects in 2021~2022.Results The ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)_(12),ARIMA(2,1,2)(2,1,0)_(12) and ARIMA(O,1,1)(O,1,1)_(12) models were used to predict the overall,urban and rural monthly incidence of birth defects in Henan Province in 2020.The average relative errors of the predicted value and the real value in 2020 were 7.26%,8.80%and 10.13%,respectively.The dynamic trends of the predicted value and the real value in 2020 are basically consistent,and the real value falls within the 95%confidence interval of the predicted value.It is predicted that the monthly incidence of birth defects will continue to rise in Henan Province from 2021 to 2022.Conclusion ARIMA model can predict the incidence of birth defects in Henan Province,and it is expected to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of prevention and control measures of birth defects.