县域财政压力、信贷行为与农村商业银行风险

County Fiscal Pressure,Credit Behavior,and Risk of Rural Commercial Banks

随着县域财政压力的加大,县级政府干预金融资源配置导致县域金融市场沦为政府的“第二财政”,对县域金融稳定产生冲击。基于2011-2021年142个农村商业银行经营数据及其所在县域的财政数据,运用多重中介效应模型实证检验县域财政压力对农村商业银行风险的影响。研究结论表明,在财政压力加大的背景下,县级政府主要通过干预农村商业银行的信贷规模和信贷投向,实现对县域内金融资源的配置,进而导致农村商业银行风险增加,即“金融财政化”增加农村商业银行风险。但进一步研究显示,县域财政压力对农村商业银行风险产生影响需要一定的前提,当财政赤字率高于3%的国际安全线或当县域金融市场为寡占型市场时,县域财政压力对农村商业银行风险有显著负面影响,否则影响不显著。此外,由于县级政府作为“看得见的手”在乡村振兴战略实施过程中发挥主导作用,若政府对市场采取激励手段,例如构建县域范围内的信用信息共享机制或“政银保担”联动机制等,县域财政压力虽然会导致农村商业银行信贷规模扩张和房地产贷款占比提升,但农村商业银行风险不升反降,这为乡村振兴背景下财政金融协同发展提供了经验证据。

With the increasing fiscal pressure in counties,the intervention of county governments in the allocation of financial resources has led to county financial markets reduced to the “second treasury”of the government,which has an impact on the stability of county finance. Based on 142 counties’ fiscal data and county-level rural commercial banks’ financial data from 2011 to 2021,this paper empirically examines the impact of county fiscal pressure on rural commercial banks’ risk using a multiple mediating effects model. The findings show that in the context of increased fiscal pressure,county governments achieve the allocation of financial resources in the region mainly by intervening in the credit scale and credit investment of rural commercial banks, which nonetheless increases the risk of rural commercial banks.Further research shows that the impact of county fiscal pressure on rural commercial banks has certain prerequisites.When the fiscal deficit ratio is higher than the international safety line of 3% or when the rural financial market is oligopolistic,county fiscal pressure has a significant negative impact on rural commercial bank risk,otherwise the impact is not significant.In addition,since the county government plays a leading role in the implementation of rural revitalization strategy as the “visible hand”,if the government provided incentives for the market,such as building a county-wide credit information sharing mechanism or a coordination mechanism among “government,bank,insurance and guarantee”,the financial pressure in the county will lead to the expansion of credit scale and the increase of the proportion of real estate loans.Even so,it will reduce the risk of rural commercial banks,which provides new evidence for the development of financial synergy in the context of rural revitalization.