新乡市城市声环境质量灰色预测

Grey prediction of urban acoustic environment quality in Xinxiang City

本文对“十三五”期间新乡市城市环境噪声污染现状及趋势进行分析。并采用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测新乡市未来5 a城市噪声环境质量,灰色关联分析得出有效治理对策。结果表明:经模型预测新乡市2021—2025年城市区域噪声、功能区噪声(昼间、夜间)等效声级呈小幅下降趋势,道路交通噪声等效声级呈上升趋势,级别由“较好”变为“一般”,污染防控方面压力较大,需加大监管力度。通过交通噪声影响因子关联性分析得出应从人口增加、机动车数量、城镇化扩张等方面制定有效防治措施。

This paper analyzes the current situation and trend of urban environmental noise pollution in Xinxiang City during the"Thirteenth Five-Year Plan"period.The grey prediction GM(1,1)model is used to predict the urban noise environment quality of Xinxiang City in the next 5 years,and the grey relational analysis is used to obtain effective control measures.The results show that:The model predicts that from 2021 to 2025,the equivalent noise of urban areas and functional areas(day and night)shows a small downward trend,the equivalent sound level of road traffic noise shows an upward trend,the level changes from"good"to"general",and the pressure of pollution prevention and control is greater,so the supervision should be strengthened.Through the correlation analysis of traffic noise influence factor,effective prevention measures should be formulated from the aspects of population increase,number of motor vehicles and urbanization expansion.